Rising Interest in Solana Futures Reflects Traders’ Mixed Sentiment Ahead of Possible $200 Rally and ETF Approval

Recent trends in Solana (SOL) reveal increased leverage use amidst uncertainties over trader sentiment, highlighting key market dynamics.

Key points:

• Solana’s resilience at the $140 support level indicates a shift in trader confidence as bullish trends struggle to gain momentum.

• Open interest in SOL futures surged to $5.75 billion, showcasing robust institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency.

• As decentralized exchange (DEX) activity rises, SOL’s potential to rally to $200 is bolstered by upcoming regulatory developments.

Despite a recent drop of 4% from April 29 to April 30 following a failed attempt to hold the $150 price point, traders showed renewed confidence as Solana maintained the $140 support level for an entire week, a first in over two months.

As leverage positions on SOL approached record highs on April 30, market sentiment began to lean towards speculation of a rally exceeding the $200 threshold.

Solana futures aggregate open interest, SOL. Source: CoinGlass

The total open interest for SOL futures reached 40.5 million SOL on April 30, indicating a 5% month-over-month increase and nearing its all-time high. In terms of dollar value, this amounts to $5.75 billion in futures positions, ranking SOL third in the cryptocurrency market and over 50% higher than XRP derivatives. This indicates a significant appetite for SOL derivatives among institutional investors.

Data shows increased demand for bearish leveraged SOL positions

While heightened demand for SOL futures typically suggests increasing optimism, the relationship between long and short positions means that rising open interest doesn’t equate to a bullish outlook. Analyzing the funding rate for perpetual contracts provides a clearer view of trader sentiment regarding SOL futures.

ETH perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, SOL futures exhibit a negative funding rate, indicating a preference for bearish positions among traders. Following a failed attempt to surpass $156 on April 25, market sentiment shifted, highlighting a cautious approach despite a significant 43% gain in SOL’s price from April 8 to April 29.

Setting a $200 target for SOL, while ambitious, remains plausible given that the token traded near $195 in mid-February, even amidst an 80% decrease in decentralized application volume from January’s peak.

Total value locked (TVL) on Solana Network, USD. Source: DefiLlama

With a total value locked (TVL) of $9.5 billion, Solana stands as the second-largest blockchain in terms of deposits. This includes liquid staking, collateralized loans, and synthetic derivatives, demonstrating the network’s diverse offerings. Leading decentralized applications on Solana, such as Meteora, have recently posted significant revenue hauls of $19.1 million weekly, followed closely by Pump-fun and Juto.

Solana network dominates volumes on decentralized exchanges

Despite Ethereum’s average transaction fee of $0.65 or less as of April 14, Solana’s decentralized exchanges recorded nearly 90% greater trading volumes. Over the past week, Solana achieved $21.6 billion in DEX activity, securing its dominance against Ethereum and Layer-2 competitors.

Decentralized exchange volumes, 7-day market share. Source: DefiLlama

Recent observations show an 87% weekly surge in Raydium’s volumes and a 58% increase in Meteora’s activity. This suggests that even with fluctuating demand for bullish positions, SOL’s price may reflect enhanced on-chain performance metrics.

Related: More than 70 US crypto ETFs await SEC decision this year

Speculatively, SOL could find upward momentum from a prospective approval of a Solana-based ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which analysts suggest has a 90% chance of approval by the anticipated deadline of October 10. With the network well-positioned, SOL may rally past the $200 mark before this potentially game-changing event.

Conclusion

To summarize, while Solana experiences a mixed sentiment in leveraged futures, the sustained support level at $140, coupled with rising institutional interest and DEX volumes, sets a complex yet promising stage for future growth. Traders and investors should remain vigilant of upcoming events that could influence market dynamics and SOL’s trajectory.