SOL January 11, 2026: Critical Resistance Test in the Uptrend

Solana (SOL) is maintaining a strong upward trend at the 139.81 dollar level, challenging the 141.60 dollar peak with a 2.70% gain on the daily chart. However, the Supertrend indicator still giving a bearish signal and the 142.75 dollar resistance barrier ahead are keeping investors cautious – if this level breaks, a new rally door toward 172 dollars could open.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

Solana is drawing attention with a trading volume of 2.82 billion dollars, moving in the 135.37 - 141.60 dollar range over the last 24 hours. A clear upward trend dominance is observed in the daily timeframe, with the price positioned well above EMA20 (133.04 dollars). This signals that short-term bulls hold control. Bitcoin's stable performance and Ethereum's slight recovery across the market have created a funding environment supporting the altcoin rally. SOL's top 5 position by market cap shows that DeFi and NFT activities in its ecosystem are fueling the volume.

Looking at multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 15 strong levels have been identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 2S/3R in 3D, and 1S/4R distribution in 1W. This emphasizes a resistance-heavy medium-term outlook but preserved short-term upside potential. The lack of significant news flow keeps technical factors in the forefront. You can evaluate more detailed entry-exit points by checking SOL Spot Analysis in the SOL spot market.

Although the upward momentum is supported by rising volume, macro uncertainties in the broader crypto market – such as Fed interest rate policies and regulatory developments – could increase SOL's volatility. The current 139.81 dollar level looks like the trend's last breath before a healthy correction; the breakout direction will depend on the weekly close.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support is at the 130.32 dollar level (score: 72/100), representing Fibonacci retracement confluence with EMA50 in 1D and 3D charts. If this area holds, the upward structure is preserved; however, on a breakdown, the next support at 136.49 dollars (62/100) activates, close to the 24-hour low. These supports act as liquidity pools where bulls can absorb panic selling during potential pullbacks. Historical data shows SOL has seen average 15% recoveries from these levels; for example, last month's bottom test in the 130s was rejected with quick buying pressure.

From an MTF perspective, 1W supports are lower (around 120 dollars), but 130.32's importance is critical within the current uptrend. Investors can use these supports as stop-loss levels for leveraged positions via the SOL Futures Analysis pages in futures trading.

Resistance Barriers

Primary resistance at 142.75 dollars (74/100), just above daily highs and aligned with Supertrend's upper band at 156.67 dollars. If this level breaks, targets are 147.97 dollars (63/100) and finally 163.07 dollars (62/100) – these are 1D/3D confluence points. Rejection at 142.75 likely leads to short-term consolidation; it may struggle without volume increase. The 4 resistance clusters on the weekly chart indicate an upside breakout will require strong buying.

Looking at past patterns, SOL has reacted to similar resistance tests with 5-10% pullbacks, but serial breakouts have been observed in bull markets. While these barriers offer ideal short opportunities for liquidity hunting, the overall trend remains upward.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI at 60.35 is in the neutral-bullish zone, preserving momentum without an overbought signal – ideal for sustainable upside. MACD shows positive histogram expansion, confirming bull divergence; its position above the signal line reinforces short-term trend strength. Staying above EMA20 supports a bullish short-term outlook relative to the 50 and 200 daily averages. However, Supertrend's ongoing bearish signal (156.67 resistance) mandates caution in the medium-term trend.

In MTF momentum, rapid RSI rises are seen in 1H/4H, while MACD nears neutral in 1W. Volume profile is 20% above average on up days, signaling an organic trend. With low volatility (ATR ~3%), sudden volume spikes could trigger breakouts. Overall, indicators are 65% bull-biased, but a Supertrend flip is awaited.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In the bullish scenario, 172.74 dollar target (score 19) offers 23.5% upside from current price; bearish to 83.99 dollars (score 22) implies 40% downside – R/R ratio around 1:1.7 favoring bulls. Risks include a general market dump (BTC under 80k) and SOL ecosystem network congestions; positives are DeFi TVL growth and potential ETF news. Balanced outlook: Wait for 142.75 breakout short-term, long opportunities at supports; shorts on resistance rejection.

With expected volatility increase, keep position sizing under 2-3%. Optimism prevails as long as the long-term uptrend holds (above 130). If market rotation shifts to altcoins, SOL could lead, though macro headwinds may apply pressure.