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Recent developments indicate a bullish trend for Toncoin (TON), projected to move towards the $5-6 range following significant market shifts.
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Amidst a 50% price surge in the past week, the momentum stems from Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s departure from France, fueling investor optimism.
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According to Crypto Patel, the recent price action offers a “great entry zone” for long-term investors as TON bounces off its yearly low.
Toncoin (TON) is experiencing a surge, bouncing back from yearly lows, driven by market sentiment. Key analysts predict a potential rally ahead.
TON is eyeing a 100% rally in 2025
As noted by analyst Crypto Patel, TON’s recent price movement indicates a strong bounce from a crucial support level around $2.50. This level has historical significance, previously acting as resistance during late 2022 to early 2023.
The support lies within the $2.40-3.00 range, which has proven to be pivotal in previous market cycles. This rebound suggests that the current prices represent an attractive entry point for investors, particularly those looking for long-term growth.
Analysts believe a decisive rally from this price zone could propel TON up to its descending trendline resistance, potentially targeting the $5 mark by late June or July this year.
Related: Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program
Further supporting this bullish outlook is analyst Profit Mind’s identification of a falling wedge pattern, projecting a target of $6 if the price breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline.
Technicals Favor an Upswing
Falling wedges typically indicate bullish reversals, especially upon a breakout above their upper trendlines. Analysts support this by pointing to the relative strength index (RSI), which shows TON in an oversold condition, presenting a potential accumulation opportunity for long-term holders.
Crypto Billion emphasizes this notion, noting that recent historical trends indicate positive price movements occur when the Sharpe ratio reaches comparable levels to current conditions. As of March 16, this ratio was reported below -25, suggesting a potential inflection point for TON.
Historical trends suggest that similar conditions preceded significant price rallies in late 2022 and mid-2023, reinforcing the case for continued positive momentum.
TON shorts remain dominant
Despite the current bullish sentiment, data from the derivatives market indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment towards Toncoin. The open interest (OI) in TON derivatives climbed to $169.12 million as of March 16, up from $80.75 million just days earlier.
However, the accompanying funding rates transitioned to negative territory, reflecting a tendency towards short-sellers. Earlier plunges in funding rates suggest an active shorting environment, which could exacerbate volatility in the near term.
A liquidation map for the TON/USDT pair on Bybit highlights potential liquidations. Should TON’s price dip towards $2.54, long positions worth nearly $10 million could be liquidated. Conversely, if the price tops $4, approximately $12 million in short positions may face substantial liquidations.
This juxtaposition creates an interesting dynamic; forced buybacks could catalyze a sharp upside movement, pushing Toncoin towards higher targets.
Conclusion
In summary, Toncoin is positioned at a critical juncture, with technical indicators pointing towards the potential for significant price increases in the coming months. As traders navigate the current environment marked by rising open interest and fluctuating funding rates, the future direction of TON largely relies on market sentiment and technical breaks. Overall, the landscape remains fluid, necessitating careful monitoring for both bullish and bearish signals.
