- Gurbacs suggests that a Bitcoin
spot ETF in the market might be exaggerated in terms of short-term entries, but could see long-term gains as the window expands.
- Considering the renowned gold analysis in the sector, trillions are expected; however, the SDPR (State Street) ETF (GLD) had a higher value before its introduction on November 18, 2024.
- Gurbacs stated that most industry participants are exaggerating projected growth and overlooking broader opportunities.
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According to VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs, the short-term impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. might be exaggerated!
Bitcoin ETFs Exaggerated According to VanEck Advisor
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VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs suggests that a Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF in the market might be exaggerated in terms of short-term entries, but could see long-term gains as the window expands. In a tweet on January 1, he mentioned that the impact of the spot BTC ETF has been exaggerated in recent months and predicted limited entries followed by increased entries after the ETF’s approval.
According to him, after the ETF approval, only $100 million from mainly institutional investors, mostly from recycled funds, might enter the market. However, in the long run, the efforts of institutional investors could result in a market flooded with entries, similar to the reference analysts use in predicting the market using the past statistics of gold.
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Considering the renowned gold analysis, trillions are expected in the sector; however, the SDPR (State Street) ETF (GLD) had a higher value before its introduction on November 18, 2024. After the introduction of the Gold ETF, the asset’s trajectory increased fourfold from $400 to $1,800, and the market value surged from $2 trillion to $10 trillion, an $8 trillion increase.
Similarly, Bitcoin stands out with a market of around $750 billion. However, if predictions are accurate, it lags behind the position of gold at that time, and the coming years could witness a market worth trillions, with the next process potentially being faster, according to Gurbacs.
“Also, according to my belief, Bitcoin ETP will only bring a few tens of billions of dollars and they won’t come all at once… but due to systematic scarcity through relatively low Bitcoin float (strong hands/long-term holders) and halving programs, this increase will be significant.”
Gurbacs emphasized that most industry participants are exaggerating projected growth and overlooking broader opportunities. Bitcoin, beyond ETFs, will create its own capital market in the coming months. The argument that an ETF would enhance reliability among assets will make assets appealing to institutional investors. Gurbacs sees more opportunities in institutional funds directly affecting the market, similar to government sovereign funds recorded with gold.
More Excitement with the New Year
In the weeks leading up to the new year, particularly Bitcoin, supported by the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF, recorded entries with a general market value and assets under management (AUM) increase. The narrative shaping the crypto story for most of the year reached unprecedented new highs with wealth funds and other investors increasing exposure to Bitcoin.
Last year, Bitcoin investment products recorded $1.6 billion in entries, with AUM surpassing $36 billion. There are several analysts suggesting that the approval of an ETF could bring trillions to the market, potentially significantly impacting the price of the asset.