Will Bitcoin Continue to Fall in September by Repeating Historical Events?

• An analyst is making a pessimistic prediction for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, by referring to BTC’s performance and comparing it to its performance in previous years.
• In his analysis, Cowen mentions that Bitcoin lost 11.31% in August, which is slightly lower compared to the average 11.71% decline the cryptocurrency experienced in the same month two years ago during its halving year.
• Bitcoin supporters maintain a bullish outlook for the medium and long term. Despite the sharp drop on August 17, a slight recovery in the latter part of August and the first week of September could fuel bullish hopes.

Can Bitcoin price change its fate in September? The famous analyst shared his thoughts on whether this trend will continue this year.

Can Bitcoin Change Its Fate in September?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that Bitcoin will likely continue a downward trend in September, ahead of next year’s halving event. He makes this prediction by referencing BTC’s performance and comparing it to its performance in previous years, offering a pessimistic outlook for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $25,860, and it has been under pressure for the past few weeks. After experiencing roughly a 60% increase following setbacks like the FTX crash in November 2022 and the insolvency of centralized finance (CeFi) lending platforms like BlockFi, it climbed to around $31,800 when it retreated from its peaks in July 2023.

Following an impressive performance in July, bears erased all gains in August. By the end of the month, Bitcoin had experienced a nearly 20% drop from its July 203 peaks, and the losses on August 17 sparked panic.

In his analysis, Cowen notes that Bitcoin lost 11.31% in August, which is slightly lower than the average 11.71% decline recorded in the same month two years ago during a halving year. However, the projections for Bitcoin in September appear even darker.

Based on data, Cowen mentions that prices tend to decline in September before the halving event. On average, Bitcoin recorded a -17.29% return in September when it halved. Therefore, if the same scenario holds, and Bitcoin follows the same trend, it will likely fall to around $21,400 by the end of this month.

A “brighter” side is that considering Bitcoin’s performance in September during the last two halving periods, the average return was -5.66%, implying that Bitcoin could drop to approximately $24,400 by the end of the month despite the bullish trend. This assessment suggests that BTC could continue to drop further in the coming weeks, guided by historical performance.

Where is Bitcoin Headed?

Bitcoin supporters maintain a bullish outlook for the medium and long term. Despite the sharp drop on August 17, a slight recovery in the latter part of August and the first week of September could fuel bullish hopes. However, when looking at price action, Bitcoin is still at risk.

On the daily chart, BTC prices are within the bearish candle of August 17, which defines the key reference bar for the current price movement. Additionally, despite relatively high prices, trading volumes are relatively low.

Supporters are eagerly awaiting the approval of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This derivative product allows institutions to gain exposure, direct capital, and potentially increase demand for BTC, potentially leading to a fresh recovery.