The Inflation Data Followed by the Fed in the US Will Be Announced Today: How Will Bitcoin Be Affected?

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States will announce the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for November today.
• Wall Street estimates align closely with recent projections by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2024.
• Fed interest rate cuts and other macro factors confirm another recovery in the price of Bitcoin and the crypto market.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States will announce PCE data for November today: Market expectations and the significance of PCE data!

PCE Data in the US to Be Announced Today

The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States will announce the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for November today. The annual PCE inflation is expected to decrease further from last month’s 3 to 2.8, with no increase in the monthly rate. Additionally, the Core PCE, preferred by the Fed to measure inflation, is expected to increase by 0.2% monthly, while the annual rate is projected to decline to its lowest level since 2021, at 3.3%.

Wall Street estimates are quite consistent with recent projections by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2024. The market currently believes there is a 45% probability of starting interest rate cuts in March. Additionally, CME FedWatch shows a 71% probability of a 25% interest rate cut in March.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stood around 101.8 on Friday, but it is ready to continue falling for the second consecutive week in expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to decline after falling below 4% last week. The yield, which is currently at 3.89%, has increased slightly as traders prepare for inflation data.

Fed interest rate cuts and other macro factors confirm another recovery in the price of Bitcoin and the crypto market. Traders and investors are also considering the approval of a major bull rally with the spot Bitcoin ETF and Bitcoin halving factors.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Rally

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana (SOL), BNB, XRP, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and other leading altcoins are rising today with expectations of a Santa Claus rally. The BTC price is trading above $43,700, and the trading volume has shown an 18% decrease. Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, the BTC price dropped below $43,387 and rose above $44,367.

However, the market may experience some profit-taking due to the options expiration on Friday. The expiration of the 25,000 BTC option with a nominal value of $1.11 billion is expected to have a put-call ratio of 0.70 and a maximum pain point of $42,000. The expiration of the 217,000 ETH option with a nominal value of $490 million is expected to have a put-call ratio of 0.60 and a maximum pain point of $2,200.