- Leading crypto analyst Eric Crown has recently discussed predictions for Bitcoin’s performance in July 2024.
- Historically, July has shown to be a promising month for Bitcoin, often generating positive returns.
- Crown points to specific price ranges and patterns that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Prominent crypto analyst Eric Crown shares insights on Bitcoin’s potential performance in July 2024, emphasizing historical trends and market sentiment.
Historical Performance of Bitcoin in July
In a detailed video released on June 22, Eric Crown provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s past performances, particularly focusing on the month of July. He underscored that July has traditionally been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen Julys closing on a positive note. This gives a statistical probability of just over 64% for a positive close in the upcoming July.
Expected Return Rates
Crown highlighted that the average positive return in July stands slightly above 19%, while negative closing months average a minor loss of just under 9%. He speculated that Bitcoin might continue to consolidate within a range of $60,000 to $70,000, provided it stays above its May lows. Although this points towards an upside, Crown cautions that it isn’t guaranteed, especially given June’s performance.
June Performance and Its Implications
Crown compared the current month’s performance with June, noting its low volatility with price movements restricted to within 4% from open to the current levels. Such behavior suggests Bitcoin is slowing down for the summer, leading to a prolonged consolidation phase. The market sentiment appears volatile, with significant reactions to small price changes. According to Crown, this sentiment is driven partly by volatile altcoin movements.
Altcoin Market Dynamics
He pointed out that altcoins have shown substantial volatility, reacting intensely to minor Bitcoin price movements. This has fed into the broader negative market sentiment. Despite this turbulence, Crown noted a positive overall market sentiment as Bitcoin is trading at twice its value compared to the previous year.
Predictions for June and Beyond
As June draws to a close, Crown anticipates Bitcoin will settle approximately around $65,000, maintaining its consolidation range. Saturdays have historically been low volatility days for Bitcoin, with a slight bias towards positive closure. However, any returns on Saturdays are typically negligible.
Significance of CME Weekly Closure
Crown observed that Bitcoin’s recent closure above the median on the CME weekly chart keeps short-term bullish hopes alive. He noted that where Bitcoin opens on the following Monday will be critical in determining immediate price action. An opening above $60,000 could provide short-term bullish opportunities, but failing to hold this level may suggest potential downside risks.
Technical Indicators and Future Outlook
Crown utilized his Quant Automation service to identify a daily setup for Bitcoin, emphasizing a 52% strike rate, comparable to a coin flip. The notable aspect here is that average winning trades see over 22% gains while losing trades average just over 8%. Bitcoin currently rests on the 50% retracement level at approximately $63,900.
Critical Support and Resistance Levels
If Bitcoin fails to maintain this critical support, it could slide to the $61,000-$62,000 range, a crucial zone for sustaining bullish sentiment. Crown suggested that even if a higher low is established, this may stretch through July and possibly into August, setting the stage for a potential breakout in Q4.
Conclusion
Crown concluded that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, and significant moves are unlikely in the immediate term. Investors should watch key support levels closely while maintaining cautious optimism for a potential late-year breakout.
