- The expectations for an altcoin season remain subdued as the TOTAL2 market cap shows limited divergence from Bitcoin [BTC].
- Despite some analysts suggesting a buying opportunity, market trends indicate a significant delay for this proposition.
- Over recent months, speculations about an impending altcoin season have been widespread, yet these predictions have failed to materialize, especially after Bitcoin’s price hit a two-month low.
Discover why the touted altcoin season is still elusive, with analysts split over market trends and future potential.
Declining Prospects for Altcoin Season
Altcoin season, often abbreviated as alt season, describes a market phase where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. However, for this season to be validated, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins by market cap must surpass Bitcoin’s performance. In recent times, many altcoins have struggled to match Bitcoin’s market dominance, as Bitcoin continues to steer the overall market directions.
Analysis of TOTAL2 Market Cap
The TOTAL2 chart, which measures the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, serves as a critical technical indicator for predicting altcoin season. At present, the TOTAL2 market cap stands at $960.23 billion, reflecting a 25.63% increase over the past six months. However, the past month has seen a 15.08% decline, while the last week alone accounts for a 4.13% drop. This downturn suggests that a potential altcoin rally may be further away than previously anticipated. A significant uptrend in this metric, ideally approaching $1 trillion, would be necessary to signal a more inclusive market growth for altcoins.
Memecoins: The Unexpected Leaders
Several analysts argue that meme coins may outshine other altcoins during or even in the absence of an altcoin season. Analyst Murad from X posits that meme coins like Pepe [PEPE], Bonk [BONK], and Floki [FLOKI] will lead any potential altcoin surge. His viewpoint is rooted in the exceptional performance of these meme coins throughout the current year. Alternatively, pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto highlighted on July 1st that the current price dips present a unique buying opportunity, suggesting that many altcoins could potentially rise by 30x. This bullish yet cautious optimism is contingent upon market movements and investor behavior.
ETH/BTC Ratio and Its Implications
The ETH/BTC ratio is another critical metric for anticipating the altcoin season. Historically, when Ethereum [ETH] outperforms Bitcoin, it boosts the chances for other altcoins to rally. At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC ratio has decreased to 0.054, down 1.62% over the past week. Previously, this ratio was 0.056, indicating that Ethereum has been underperforming relative to Bitcoin. If Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin improves, it could reignite hopes for an altcoin season. Conversely, current trends suggest a continued dominance by Bitcoin, thereby delaying any potential market shift towards altcoins. Market participants may also be waiting for the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs, initially expected on July 2nd but now anticipated around July 8th, to gain further insights into the viability of an altcoin season.
Conclusion
Despite ongoing speculations, the much-anticipated altcoin season remains out of reach. Various factors, including the TOTAL2 market cap and ETH/BTC ratio, indicate that altcoins might not see a substantial rebound anytime soon. While meme coins show some promise, other altcoins face considerable challenges. Investors should monitor these trends closely and consider the broader market dynamics before making informed decisions.
