Bitcoin’s Recent Surge: Speculative FOMO or Indication of Genuine Demand?

Bitcoin’s recent price movements raise questions about the underlying market dynamics as active addresses show high volumes but struggle to sustain momentum.

• Bitcoin’s active addresses hit a six-month high, suggesting strong market interest.

• BTC is currently attempting to maintain its breakout above $97,000.

Calling for a $100k target while Bitcoin [BTC] just dipped 4% from its $97k high in only three days might sound a bit ambitious. However, on the on-chain side, Bitcoin recently recorded its highest network activity in six months, with 925,914 active addresses in a single day, when BTC was sitting at $96,951.

You’d think that kind of buzz would send BTC soaring, right? Instead, BTC fell nearly 2% the very next day.

This echoes a similar pattern from early March, when active addresses spiked to 860k on the 7th of March (the highest in a week), only for BTC to retrace 7% as active addresses declined shortly after.

Source: Glassnode

This price-action behavior reflects a bearish divergence between on-chain activity and price movement. Further investigation by COINOTAG revealed that on the same day the active address count surged, approximately 5,000 BTC (worth around $484 million) flowed into derivative exchanges. Consequently, this signaled speculative positioning rather than genuine spot BTC demand. So, instead of long-term holders stacking up, the market could be seeing leverage-driven selling, which likely caused the price dip.

Is Bitcoin running out of FOMO as active addresses plunge?

The last time Bitcoin experienced genuine spot demand was on the 29th of April, when net outflows across all exchanges spiked while BTC was priced at $94,280. Since then, although the price has reclaimed key resistance levels, net flows have remained largely flat. Looks like retail’s taking a step back – Could this be a sign of bullish fatigue?

Source: CryptoQuant

Compounding this, Bitcoin’s active addresses sharply declined from a six-month peak on the 2nd of May to a two-week low of 618k the day after. This drop reflected a clear hesitation among traders to engage in spot buying near the $97k level. Hence, signaling waning participation and reluctance to accumulate BTC at elevated valuations. In this context, the $100k target appears increasingly speculative.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin navigates through these turbulent waters, the juxtaposition of increased network activity against declining price suggests a complex market dynamic. The ongoing bearish sentiment might ultimately necessitate a reevaluation of price targets. Investors should remain vigilant and consider market signals carefully, as this journey toward the elusive $100k target becomes more convoluted.