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Analyst Willy Woo predicts Bitcoin’s CAGR will stabilize at 8%, citing slowing institutional returns and macroeconomic alignment.
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Contrasting views from Fred Krueger and Arthur Hayes forecast Bitcoin soaring to $250,000–$1 million by 2028, driven by market momentum.
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Experts highlight liquidity as Bitcoin’s key growth driver, with rising global debt forcing governments to inject more capital.
Bitcoin’s future faces contrasting forecasts, as expert analysis suggests both cautious growth and explosive potential driven by global liquidity.
Willy Woo predicts Bitcoin’s CAGR will decline and stabilize at 8%
Woo shared a chart titled “Bitcoin Annualised Returns,” showing that Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped sharply, from over 100% in 2017 to around 30–40% after 2020.
That was the period when major institutions, including corporations and governments, began accumulating Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Annualised Returns. Source: Willy Woo.
“People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams. Here’s the actual CAGR chart. We are well past the 2017 year where we’d see many 100s of percent growth,” Willy Woo said.
Woo forecasts that Bitcoin’s CAGR will continue to decline over the next 15–20 years and eventually stabilize around 8%. This rate aligns with long-term monetary growth (5%) and GDP growth (3%). He emphasized that even with a lower CAGR, Bitcoin will still outperform most other publicly traded assets.
However, investor and author Fred Krueger disagreed. He pointed out that Bitcoin has already increased 7x from its December 2022 low, now trading at $103,000 as of May 2025.
Additionally, in a recent interview, Arthur Hayes went even further. He predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million before the end of Donald Trump’s current term. He expects the price to hit $250,000 by the end of 2025, representing a 1,000% increase in just four years.
GDP and liquidity growth seen as key drivers of Bitcoin’s future gains
Woo’s prediction is largely based on GDP expansion and monetary growth. Meanwhile, Paul Guerra, Head of Social at RealVision, offered deeper insights on the matter.
Discussing liquidity, he argued that traditional diversification strategies may no longer work in today’s market environment. That’s because assets like stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and real estate now tend to move together, driven by a single key factor: liquidity.
“The true driver of markets is liquidity — the amount of money flowing through the system,” Paul said.
GMI Total Liquidity Index. Source: Paul Guerra.
The Global Liquidity Index is currently growing at 8% annually. To understand liquidity, Paul suggested that we must first understand GDP. He presented a formula for GDP growth: GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth.
But today, population growth and productivity are declining worldwide. As a result, governments are being forced to inject liquidity to sustain GDP and support rising debt.
“Populations are AGING. Productivity gains are FLAT. Debt is EXPLODING. To keep GDP alive and service people’s debt, governments have only one tool: Pump liquidity,” Paul explained.
Bitcoin Price And GMI Total Liquidity Index. Source: Paul Guerra.
As a result, liquidity is expected to increase at an even faster rate. Paul predicted that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2025 and enter what he calls the “Banana Zone.” This term describes periods of massive asset price increases fueled by abundant liquidity.
Historical examples include Bitcoin’s 19,900% gain from 2013–2017, and Ethereum’s 699,900% surge in previous cycles.
Still, these analyses focus heavily on macroeconomic factors while overlooking potential technical risks. For instance, concerns are growing that advancements in quantum computing could threaten trust in Bitcoin’s long-term viability.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the Bitcoin landscape predicts both a cautious stabilization and high potential for growth, the underlying factors of liquidity and macroeconomic conditions will play a central role. Investors are urged to remain observant and adaptable in their strategies moving forward.
