Bitcoin is consolidating in a falling wedge near $115,700; a confirmed close above $114,000 targets $118,000–$119,484 as traders interpret Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole comments and rising rate-cut odds as the catalyst for a near-term breakout.
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Falling wedge breakout target: $118,000–$119,484
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Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks lifted BTC from $112,000 to $116,000 amid higher September rate-cut odds.
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Market data: market cap $2.304T, circulating supply 19,910,203 BTC, 24h volume $48.55B (Coingecko)
Bitcoin falling wedge near $115,700, breakout targets $118K–$119,484; monitor $114K close for confirmation — read actionable levels and key takeaways.
Bitcoin consolidates in a falling wedge near $115,700 as analysts target $118K–$119,484 after Powell’s rate cut signal boosts momentum
Bitcoin is consolidating within a falling wedge formation on the one-hour chart after declining from recent highs above $132,000. BTC is trading around $115,700, showing stability near wedge resistance after rebounding from lows near $112,000.
What is the Bitcoin falling wedge formation and why does it matter?
The Bitcoin falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern defined by converging descending trendlines on shorter time frames. A breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline—confirmed by a close above $114,000—typically signals upward momentum and measured targets toward $118,000–$119,484.
How did analysts measure the breakout target?
Analyst Captain Faibik measured the wedge’s height and projected a 5.67% measured move from the breakout point, yielding a target near $119,484. The one-hour chart shows lower highs and lower lows compressing into a narrow range, increasing the probability of a volatile expansion on breakout.
When did macro events influence price action?
Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled that the balance of risks “may warrant adjusting” monetary policy, interpreted by markets as a potential rate cut in September. That dovish tone pushed BTC from about $112,000 to $116,000 as risk-on flows returned to digital assets.
What are the market probabilities and on-chain context?
CME FedWatch data moved the implied probability of a 25bp cut in September materially higher, which correlated with increased buying pressure. On-chain and market metrics show accumulation near $115,700 alongside robust liquidity—24-hour volume around $48.55 billion (Coingecko), and a market cap near $2.304 trillion.
How can traders approach a falling wedge breakout?
- Wait for confirmation: require a daily or hourly close above $114,000 to validate breakout.
- Set measured targets: primary target $118,000; extended target $119,484 based on wedge projection.
- Manage risk: place stop-losses below recent lows (e.g., below $112,000) and size positions for volatility.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price zone | $115,700 (approx.) |
| Breakout confirmation | Close above $114,000 |
| Measured targets | $118,000 — $119,484 |
| Market cap (Coingecko) | $2.304 trillion |
| Circulating supply | 19,910,203 BTC |
| 24h volume | $48.55 billion |
Who provided the technical observation?
Captain Faibik identified the one-hour falling wedge and calculated the 5.67% measured move. His commentary highlighted that a breakout above $114,000 could open the door to $118,000+. The following is a plain-text capture of the original market call attributed to Captain Faibik:
$BTC is on the verge Falling wedge Breakout on the 1h TF chart..📈 Breakout above 114k could open the door to 118k+ #Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/eBKV6xioQu — Captain Faibik 🐺 August 22, 2025
Current trading action remains close to the wedge’s upper boundary, where BTC has tested resistance multiple times. Price movement between $112,000 and $114,000 indicates consolidation before potential expansion.
Source: Coingecko
Market data from Coingecko shows Bitcoin’s capitalization at $2.304 trillion, with a circulating supply of 19,910,203 coins. The fully diluted valuation is nearly equal, reflecting circulation nearing maximum supply. Daily trading volume of $48.55 billion points to strong liquidity and active participation.
Source: KamranAsghar (X)
Analyst Kamran Asghar noted that BTC appears to be “taking a deep breath” before the next leg higher, observing accumulation by smart money. Such commentary aligns with on-chain accumulation metrics and the price stability seen near $115,700.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is a falling wedge breakout to produce a sustained rally?
Falling wedge breakouts often precede sustained rallies when volume confirms the move. In BTC’s case, a surge in volume on a close above $114,000 would strengthen the case for continuation toward $118K–$119.5K.
What should traders watch to invalidate the bullish view?
If BTC fails to hold $112,000 and posts a decisive close below recent lows, the wedge may be invalidated and sellers can test lower support levels. Manage positions and set stops accordingly.
When could macro policy shifts change this outlook?
Monetary policy signals ahead of Federal Reserve meetings or new CPI prints can rapidly change risk sentiment. Traders should monitor Fed commentary and key US economic releases for sudden shifts.
Key Takeaways
- Pattern: Falling wedge on the 1h chart suggests bullish breakout potential.
- Trigger: Confirmed close above $114,000 is the immediate breakout signal.
- Targets & Risk: Measured targets $118,000–$119,484; invalidate below $112,000; size positions for volatility.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s falling wedge and recent macro cues from Powell have combined to create a watchable setup. Traders should focus on a confirmed hourly/daily close above $114,000 and monitor volume and macro updates. COINOTAG will continue to track price action and update targets as conditions evolve.
