Bitcoin Could Test $107K Support as Oversold Signals and On-Chain Bands Suggest Possible Rebound to $114K–$116K

• RSI near oversold at 33.81 suggests waning selling pressure and a possible rebound.

• Key support: $107K–$108K; strong downside band: $98K–$100K; resistance near $112.2K and $114K–$116K.

• On-chain realized price bands show $112,200 resistance and $98,700 support, crucial for short-term direction.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC near $108K with oversold signals; watch $107K support — read actionable levels and short-term targets now.

Bitcoin faces pressure near $109K as analysts note oversold signals, $107K support, and on-chain bands for the next decisive move.

• Bitcoin shows bullish divergence with RSI near oversold, raising chances of a rebound toward $114K–$116K if support holds.
• Analyst Javon Marks sees potential for a reversal to $123K, while Cas Abbé flags $98K–$100K as the next strong support.
• On-chain realized price bands show $112.2K resistance and $98.7K support, crucial levels for Bitcoin’s short term outlook.

Bitcoin is at a key point as analysts weigh potential recovery targets against growing downside risks. At the time of writing, BTC was priced at $108,480 having declined from fresh highs around $118,000.

What is the Bitcoin price outlook right now?

Bitcoin price outlook shows near-term uncertainty: momentum indicators signal oversold conditions, increasing the chance of a relief bounce to $114K–$116K if $107K–$108K support holds. A confirmed breakdown under $107K would open the path toward $105K and potentially $98K–$100K.

How close is Bitcoin to oversold levels and what do indicators show?

The RSI sits at 33.81, placing BTC near oversold territory and implying sellers may be losing momentum. The MACD histogram remains negative but is contracting, which aligns with reduced bearish pressure.

These conditions create a bullish divergence against lower lows in price, often preceding a corrective rally. If momentum reverses, short-term targets of $114K–$116K become reachable; failure to hold $107K risks a move to $104K–$105K and then toward the $98K–$100K band.

Why do on-chain realized price bands matter now?

Realized price bands highlight where long-term holders and previous transaction cohorts stabilize price. The current realized upper band near $112,200 acts as immediate resistance, while the lower realized level around $98,700 serves as a stabilizing support during sizable corrections.

When the market price sits below the trader realized price, as it currently does, confidence is reduced and volatility tends to rise. Monitoring these bands helps traders anticipate where selling may exhaust or where capitulation could concentrate.

Bitcoin price outlook chart, Source: Cas Abbé on X

When could Bitcoin rebound to $123K as some analysts suggest?

Analyst Javon Marks highlights a confirmed bullish divergence that could fuel a reversal toward $123,000, representing roughly a 15% gain from current levels. For that scenario, BTC must first reclaim resistance near $112,200 and sustain a move above $120,000 to trigger broader momentum.

Timeframe depends on volatility and market participation; a quick rebound is possible if liquidity and buy-side interest return, but prolonged weakness in on-chain demand makes the higher target less probable in the immediate term.

Support and resistance snapshot

• Immediate support: $107,000–$108,000 — key for short-term stability.
• Near resistance: $112,200 — realized price band and pivot.
• Downside floor: $98,000–$100,000 — strong on-chain support band.
• Upside potential: $114,000–$116,000 (short-term) and $123,000 (analyst target).

How to monitor Bitcoin’s short-term risk and opportunities?

Use layered signals: on-chain realized price bands, RSI and MACD, and orderbook liquidity near $107K–$112K. Watch for confirmation: a rebound must be accompanied by rising RSI and contracting sell-side volume to be sustainable.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does an RSI of 33.81 mean for Bitcoin?

An RSI of 33.81 indicates Bitcoin is approaching oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Traders often watch for RSI divergence with price to anticipate potential relief rallies.

How should traders react if BTC breaks below $107K?

If BTC closes below $107K, short-term risk rises; traders should reduce leverage and monitor $105K–$104K as intermediate targets, with $98K–$100K as the next major support band.

Key Takeaways

• Oversold momentum: RSI near 33.8 hints at fading selling pressure and a possible relief bounce.
• Critical levels: $107K–$108K support, $112.2K resistance, and $98K–$100K downside band guide short-term bias.
• Plan and risk-manage: Wait for confirmation via rising momentum and reclaimed resistance before adding exposure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook hinges on whether $107K–$108K holds. Momentum indicators and on-chain realized price bands provide clear levels to watch; a sustained move above $112.2K would improve bullish prospects toward $114K–$116K and possibly $123K. Traders should prioritize defined risk management and monitor on-chain data and momentum for confirmations.

By COINOTAG — Published: 2025-08-30 — Updated: 2025-08-30