Coinbase Says Bitcoin Could Benefit as Crypto Treasuries Enter Player‑Versus‑Player Phase; Firms Must Differentiate

• Crypto treasuries face a player-vs-player phase requiring differentiation and strong execution.

• Heightened competition and regulatory constraints have compressed mNAV premiums for many treasury firms.

• Fed rate-cut expectations and robust liquidity may give crypto markets “room to run” in Q4, supporting BTC demand.

Crypto treasuries at inflection point: learn why differentiation matters and how macro tailwinds could support crypto; read the outlook and key takeaways.

What are crypto treasuries and why are they at a critical inflection point?

Crypto treasuries (digital asset treasuries or DATs) are corporate or institutional balance-sheet allocations to cryptocurrencies. Coinbase research shows these vehicles have moved from scarcity-driven premiums to a “player-vs-player” stage where differentiation, execution and timing determine long-term success.

How has competition affected treasury valuations?

Early movers like MicroStrategy and other major Bitcoin holders historically enjoyed substantial mNAV (multiple of Net Asset Value) premiums. Increased market entry, execution risks and evolving regulation have reduced those premiums. Coinbase researchers David Duong and Colin Basco note that the scarcity premium has dissipated, prompting mNAV compression and selective survivorship among treasury firms.

Analysts at NYDIG and other market observers reported that several crypto-buying companies saw valuation declines even as Bitcoin appreciated, underscoring the divergence between asset performance and firm-specific execution.

How reliable is the “September effect” for Bitcoin trading?

Monthly seasonality is not a dependable signal for Bitcoin. Historical declines in September between 2017–2022 gave rise to the “September effect,” but that pattern did not hold in 2023 and 2024. Coinbase’s analysis indicates month-of-year is not a statistically robust predictor of monthly BTC returns.

Source: David Duong

When might macro policy provide a tailwind for crypto?

Coinbase researchers expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in the near term, which historically supports risk assets. Rising US inflation readings (0.4% in August, 2.9% year-over-year in August) and anticipated 25-basis-point cuts could create liquidity and confidence that benefit crypto markets in Q4.

What does this mean for Bitcoin performance?

Bitcoin could continue to outperform if macro tailwinds persist. Coinbase expects the crypto bull market to have “room to run” entering Q4, supported by liquidity, constructive macro policy and improving regulatory clarity. This view is conditional on persistent execution by treasury firms and broad investor participation.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do digital asset treasuries differ from regular corporate treasuries?

Digital asset treasuries allocate a portion of corporate capital to cryptocurrencies for strategic, inflation-hedge or return-seeking purposes. They carry distinct custody, regulatory and valuation risks compared with traditional cash or bond holdings.

What operational factors determine a treasury company’s survival?

Key factors include custody and security practices, capital structure, reporting transparency, regulatory compliance, market timing and differentiation in strategy. Firms that excel in these areas are likelier to maintain investor confidence and mNAV premiums.

Key Takeaways

• Market phase shift: Crypto treasuries moved into a player-versus-player stage where execution matters more than copycat strategies.
• mNAV compression: Competition and regulatory constraints have reduced valuation premiums enjoyed by early adopters.
• Macro tailwinds: Anticipated Fed rate cuts and robust liquidity could support crypto markets in Q4.

Conclusion

Crypto treasuries are no longer guaranteed winners; success now requires operational excellence, strategic differentiation and regulatory clarity. With macro conditions potentially improving in Q4, well-executed DATs could channel fresh capital into crypto markets and boost returns. Monitor treasury execution metrics, liquidity trends and policy developments as conditions evolve.

Crypto treasury firms will need to do more than copy Strategy’s “playbook” to thrive as the market matures, and that competition could boost crypto markets.

Crypto-buying public companies are entering a competitive phase where firms will increasingly battle for investor capital, potentially amplifying flows into crypto markets, according to Coinbase research by David Duong and Colin Basco.

“The days of easy money and guaranteed mNAV premiums are over,” the Coinbase research team wrote, highlighting that the environment now rewards differentiated strategy and strong execution.

Duong and Basco argue that digital asset treasuries (DATs) have shifted into a “player-versus-player” stage in which strategically positioned firms can outperform, while others may struggle amid tightened premiums and regulatory constraints.

Why have early-adopter premiums faded?

Early movers, including large Bitcoin-holding firms, benefited from a scarcity premium that translated to high mNAVs. As more companies adopted crypto allocations and regulators clarified oversight, that premium weakened. Execution shortfalls and competition have driven mNAV compression, raising the bar for new entrants.

Market participants including NYDIG have observed valuation declines for several treasury firms even as Bitcoin gained, signaling that asset price appreciation does not automatically translate to firm-level value preservation.

How should investors and treasuries prepare?

Institutions and investors should prioritize custody security, transparent reporting, and clearly articulated investment mandates. Treasury firms must differentiate via product innovation, hedging strategies and governance to maintain investor support as the market matures.

Coinbase’s researchers also caution against over-reliance on simple seasonal signals like the “September effect.” While September showed negative returns in several consecutive years between 2017 and 2022, 2023 and 2024 broke that pattern, reducing the indicator’s predictive value.

What are the near-term macro implications?

Coinbase expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in the short term, which historically supports risk asset performance. With US inflation rising 0.4% in August to 2.9% year-over-year, anticipated 25-basis-point cuts could bolster market liquidity and investor willingness to take crypto exposure.

“Heading into Q4, we maintain a constructive outlook on crypto markets, anticipating continued support from robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments,” said Coinbase researchers David Duong and Colin Basco.

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