A QCP Capital report on September 17th signalled that the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle tonight, with an anticipated 25 basis point reduction to 4.00–4.25%. Market-implied trajectories currently factor in approximately six cumulative cuts by 2026, and participants are parsing the dot plot and Powell‘s press conference language for indications on the longer-term monetary policy path.
Despite apparent improvements in liquidity conditions, the crypto market continues to underperform broader risk assets, leaving a measurable divergence in risk premia. Whether the Fed’s communication and initial easing will materially compress that gap remains an open question; market pricing and subsequent macro data will be the principal, verifiable drivers of short-term crypto volatility and investor positioning.