Quantum computing poses a credible near- to mid-term threat to Bitcoin: Solana co‑founder Anatoly Yakovenko warns of a significant breakthrough within five to ten years and urges migration to a quantum‑resistant Bitcoin signature scheme to protect wallets and future transactions.
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50/50 chance of a quantum breakthrough within five years — urgent action advised
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Mitigation requires a coordinated upgrade to post‑quantum signatures, which may need a hard fork and community consensus.
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Experts disagree on timing: estimates range from under five years to two decades; planning and research are recommended now.
Quantum computing Bitcoin threat: plan upgrades to quantum‑resistant signatures now to secure wallets and transactions. Learn the steps and timeline.
Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko forecasts a “50/50” chance of a quantum computing breakthrough by 2030, and says the Bitcoin community must “speed things up.”
Solana co‑founder Anatoly Yakovenko has urged the Bitcoin community to accelerate its efforts to guard against quantum attacks, arguing that a major breakthrough in quantum computing could come much sooner than many expect.
What is the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin?
The quantum computing Bitcoin threat is that sufficiently powerful quantum machines could solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem underlying ECDSA, enabling attackers to derive private keys from public keys and sign transactions. If realized, this would undermine the security of exposed Bitcoin addresses and stored keys.
How likely is a quantum breakthrough in the next five to ten years?
Yakovenko said at the All‑In Summit 2025 (video published to YouTube) that he feels a “50/50 within five years” for a major quantum advance. He pointed to rapid AI and hardware convergence as reasons to accelerate defensive work. Other experts provide a wider range: some cybersecurity researchers warn it could plausibly occur in under five years, while seasoned cryptographers estimate a multi‑decade horizon.
How soon could quantum computers break Bitcoin cryptography?
Current Bitcoin wallets use the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which depends on the hardness of the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem for classical computers. Quantum algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm could, in principle, solve these problems exponentially faster, making ECDSA vulnerable if large, error‑corrected quantum computers become available.
Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko spoke at the All-in Summit. Source: All-In Podcast
David Carvalho, founder and chief scientist of Naoris Protocol, said in June that quantum hardware improvements could “plausibly rip” through Bitcoin cryptography within less than five years. Conversely, Blockstream CEO Adam Back has estimated the credible threat may appear in “maybe 20 years.” Samson Mow has suggested the timeline is probably closer to a decade, adding that other systemic failures could precede a cryptographic collapse.
How would Bitcoin migrate to quantum‑resistant signatures?
Migrating Bitcoin to post‑quantum cryptography is technically feasible but operationally complex. A practical plan requires research, testing, community coordination, and one or more protocol upgrades. Below is a concise, actionable guide for stakeholders.
- Research & standardization: Evaluate candidate post‑quantum signature schemes and standards from cryptography research and national labs.
- Prototype & audit: Implement prototypes, run audits, and test for performance, key sizes, and interoperability.
- Soft‑fork tooling: Where possible, implement backward‑compatible options (e.g., dual‑signatures) to reduce disruption.
- Hard fork coordination: If a hard fork is required, build community consensus, timelines, and upgrade paths for wallets and miners.
- Key rotation and education: Publish migration guides for wallet providers and users to rotate keys safely and avoid address reuse.
- Continuous monitoring: Track quantum hardware advances and adjust timelines and mitigations accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can quantum computers already break Bitcoin today?
No. Current quantum hardware lacks the scale and error correction needed to run Shor’s algorithm on keys used by Bitcoin. Most experts agree the present threat is theoretical, though accelerating hardware improvements make planning urgent.
What would a quantum attack on Bitcoin look like?
A quantum attack would derive private keys from public keys, enabling an attacker to sign transactions and move funds from wallets that have exposed public keys or reused addresses.
Should individual Bitcoin users change their behavior now?
Yes: avoid address reuse, move funds off addresses with exposed public keys when possible, and follow wallet developer guidance on key rotation and post‑quantum upgrade support.
Key Takeaways
- Probability is non‑negligible: Leading voices warn a quantum breakthrough could occur within five to ten years.
- Technical mitigation exists: Post‑quantum signature schemes and hybrid approaches can protect Bitcoin, but require testing and consensus.
- Action items: Increase research funding, coordinate upgrades, and instruct users to avoid address reuse and rotate keys.
Conclusion
Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko’s warning underscores that the quantum computing Bitcoin threat is now a planning imperative. While timelines vary, the community should accelerate research into post‑quantum signatures, prototype upgrades, and coordinated deployment. Proactive preparation can preserve trust and security as quantum capabilities evolve.
