Bitcoin May Face Reassessment Against Gold as XRP ETF Window Opens and Binance May Pay $283M Compensation

• Bloomberg warns BTC/gold ratio may drop ~50%

• XRP ETF rulings due Oct. 18–24 could open institutional flows.

• Binance issued $283 million in client compensation after forced liquidations.

Bitcoin vs gold analysis after the crash: expert warnings, ETF dates, and market recovery cues — read COINOTAG for data-driven evening coverage and trading outlook.

Published: 2025-10-13 · Updated: 2025-10-13 · Author/Organization: COINOTAG

Bitcoin: 50% Loss against gold?

Bitcoin vs gold is back in the spotlight after a severe weekend selloff. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg, warned the BTC/gold ratio could decline roughly 50%, suggesting a renewed flight to the traditional safe haven and a reassessment of Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.

McGlone told Bloomberg that market stress can flip investor preference toward gold’s relative stability, making Bitcoin behave more like a high‑beta tech asset. Trading data shows Bitcoin weakness during the crash — with intraday lows near $100,600 and a current recovery attempt around $109,000–$111,000 — while BTC dominance has risen above 55%, reflecting capital exiting altcoins back into Bitcoin.

BTC/Gold by TradingView

Key market figures: global crypto capitalization recovered about $550 billion from the bottom but remains roughly $280 billion below pre-crash levels (source: market-cap data). These movements highlight how correlation to macro and liquidity conditions continues to define relative performance between Bitcoin and gold.

What does a falling BTC/gold ratio mean for investors?

A sustained drop in the BTC/gold ratio implies investors value gold’s price stability over Bitcoin’s upside potential. For portfolio managers, this increases emphasis on liquidity and drawdown controls. Traders should monitor volatility, funding rates, and liquidation risk because forced selling can exacerbate declines.

XRP ETF decision window opens

Oct. 18–24 is a crucial period for XRP as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reviews six spot ETF applications tied to the token. Applicants under review include Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, CanaryCapital, CoinShares and WisdomTree (applicant names cited as plain text). Approval of any one spot ETF would mark a first for XRP in the U.S., potentially unlocking institutional demand similar to prior BTC and ETH ETF flows.

If an ETF is approved, analysts expect potential capital inflows and price tests of major resistance zones above $3. However, procedural uncertainty remains: the SEC is operating with constrained staffing due to government funding issues, which could cause timeline shifts or additional scrutiny over liquidity and investor protections.

How likely is approval and what are the immediate market implications?

Approval odds hinge on the SEC’s assessment of market surveillance and custody frameworks. Historical precedents from BTC and ETH ETFs suggest approval can drive concentrated inflows, but the magnitude depends on ticket size, custody arrangements, and interoperability with existing institutional conduits. Traders should watch order books and on‑chain flows for early signs of allocation.

Binance pays $283 million in compensation

Binance announced a $283 million compensation program aimed at clients who suffered losses during the Oct. 10–11 crash. The largest impacts came from three instruments where valuations decoupled from expected pegs or models: Ethena’s USDe (fell from $1 to $0.65), Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) derivative, and Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) tied to locked Ethereum deposits.

According to Binance statements (plain text), aggressive markdowns by internal price oracles triggered forced liquidations across both long and short positions. The exchange characterized the payout as a corrective measure to restore market confidence amid “extraordinary macroeconomic volatility” that prompted panic selling.

Did exchange action stabilize markets?

Short-term stabilization was achieved for affected clients, but broader market confidence depends on transparency and clear oracle governance. Reimbursements reduce immediate counterparty risk, yet systemic resilience requires improved asset architecture and liquid collateral buffers to withstand rapid de‑pegging events.

Evening outlook

The current market narrative links macroeconomic pressures, regulatory timing and centralized exchange dynamics. As the U.S. equity market opens, the immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can sustain the $109,000–$111,000 zone; a break below could trigger fresh liquidations, while a sustained hold could open targets near $113,000–$114,000. Ethereum remains capped near $4,300 for now.

Traders should monitor funding rates, top‑of‑book liquidity, and ETF news flow for directional cues. Institutional commentary and regulatory windows (notably the SEC decision window for XRP ETFs) will likely dictate short‑term capital allocation patterns.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will a 50% drop in the BTC/gold ratio happen immediately?

Not necessarily. A 50% decline is a scenario highlighted by Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone as a possibility under sustained market stress. Timing depends on macro shocks, liquidity events, and investor sentiment; protective risk management is advised while monitoring on‑chain and order‑book indicators.

How should I respond if the XRP ETF is approved?

If an XRP spot ETF is approved, expect increased institutional flows; consider scaling exposure with liquidity in mind and set clear entry points. Maintain position sizing discipline and use limit orders to avoid slippage during early inflows.

Key Takeaways

• Market recovery is partial: Global crypto value regained about $550 billion but remains ~$280 billion below pre-crash levels.
• Bitcoin risk profile under debate: Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warns the BTC/gold ratio could fall ~50%, re‑casting Bitcoin as higher beta.
• Regulation and exchange actions matter: XRP ETF decisions (Oct. 18–24) and Binance’s $283M compensation package will shape near‑term flows — monitor these events closely.

Conclusion

The weekend crash and ensuing recovery highlight the fragile balance between risk appetite and safe‑haven demand: Bitcoin vs gold remains a central debate, while XRP ETF rulings and exchange interventions like Binance’s $283 million payout will heavily influence capital flows. COINOTAG will continue to track official data from the SEC, statements from Binance, and market signals to inform readers and traders as events unfold.

Sources (plain text): Bloomberg, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Binance statements, TradingView market data.