XRP Could Test $3.20 as Binance Reserves Fall and On-Chain Demand Builds Ahead of ETF Hearings

Published: 13 October 2025 • Updated: 13 October 2025 • By COINOTAG

• Falling exchange reserves are tightening supply

• Futures open interest dropped about $5 billion, reducing leverage risk

• CoinShares reports $61.6M in weekly inflows, signaling steady spot demand

XRP price showing supply squeeze and ETF tailwinds — watch $3.20 for breakout confirmation. Read COINOTAG’s full market analysis now.

What is driving XRP price’s recent rebound?

XRP price has rebounded on a combination of falling exchange reserves, light futures leverage, and sustained spot inflows. On-chain metrics show Binance reserves declining by nearly 100 million XRP since 10 October, while futures open interest contracted roughly $5 billion — both supportive of an upward move.

How could ETF catalysts affect XRP price momentum?

Spot ETF hearings start within days, creating a potential seasonal catalyst for XRP. Market participants are positioning ahead of the hearings; CoinShares data shows $61.6 million of inflows into XRP for the 18th consecutive week. According to on-chain trackers, exchange reserves slipped back to early-September levels, which historically precedes localized supply squeezes. A COINOTAG market analyst commented: “Reduced exchange supply plus lighter leverage makes market structure more favorable for a sustained leg higher if demand persists during ETF proceedings.”

Frequently Asked Questions

How high could XRP price rise if $3.20 holds as support after the ETF news?

If $3.20 holds, XRP price could see renewed buying interest that targets the prior $3.50 swing and beyond, depending on liquidity and ETF-related flows. Historically, similar structural setups produced double-digit weekly gains when leverage was flushed and spot demand rose.

Is XRP likely to break out soon with ETF hearings scheduled?

Yes — if spot demand continues and exchange reserves remain low, XRP can break out. The market is positioned for an ETF-driven lift; a confirmed close above $3.20 with volume would increase the probability of a breakout in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• Exchange reserves down: Binance reserves have fallen ~100 million XRP since 10 October, tightening available supply.
• Leverage reduction: Futures open interest declined by about $5 billion, lowering liquidation risk and making upward moves cleaner.
• ETF and inflows: CoinShares reports $61.6M of inflows; ETF hearings may provide the catalyst if demand sustains — watch $3.20 closely.

Market analysis and on-chain context

The market is attempting to rebuild conviction after a steep drawdown that took XRP to a $1.25 low. On the 1-hour chart, price recovered ~100% off that bottom, suggesting aggressive spot accumulation at distressed levels. Exchange reserve trends (data from CryptoQuant) and institutional flow figures (CoinShares) both signal growing spot demand. Futures OI contraction reduced systemic leverage, which historically lowers the likelihood of violent counter-trend liquidations and helps underpin steady rallies.

Expert perspective: COINOTAG analyst — “The current setup is textbook for a controlled rally: falling exchange supply, modest inflows, and light leverage. If ETF hearings deliver clarity and inflows continue, $3.20 is the tactical line in the sand for a broader breakout.”

Source: CryptoQuant (exchange reserve data). Source: CoinShares (weekly flow data).

Conclusion

In summary, XRP price is benefiting from converging on-chain and institutional signals: reduced exchange reserves, a large drop in futures open interest, and consecutive weeks of spot inflows. These elements combine to form a lower-risk environment for upside continuation, with $3.20 acting as a pivotal level ahead of ETF hearings. Traders and investors should monitor reserve trends, futures OI, and weekly inflows for confirmation; COINOTAG will update coverage as official hearing outcomes and flow data arrive.

The market is trying to find its footing, and all eyes are on the charts.

The play here? Hold the key support to rebuild conviction. Notably, XRP bulls are already ticking that box. On the 1H timeframe, for instance, XRP’s price bounced a clean 100% off its $1.25 crash low.

At the time of writing, on-chain action seemed to back it up too. Consider this – Binance reserves slid to their early September levels, with nearly 100 million XRP pulled since 10 October. This has created a textbook setup for a potential supply squeeze.

Source: CryptoQuant

In short, on-chain demand may be flexing straight into XRP’s price.

Meanwhile, leverage has been staying super light. XRP’s Futures Open Interest (OI) dumped $5 billion in the same window, marking the biggest bleed since late July when the OI topped $10 billion near XRP’s $3.50 swing.

For context, that flush back then sparked XRP’s near 19% weekly bounce off $2.70, while Binance reserves slid from 3 billion to 2.8 billion. With bulls stacking again, could XRP’s price be gearing up for the next push past $3.20?

XRP’s price poised for ETF-driven seasonal boost

Finally, XRP’s leverage blowout couldn’t have come at a better time.

In less than a week, XRP Spot ETF hearings kick off, with Grayscale first on 18 October. The market is already licking its chops right now. In fact, XRP’s price ripped past $2.50, despite crashing to $1.25 not long ago.

In short, conviction has been building. Inflows into XRP are rolling in for the 18th straight week too. According to CoinShares, the altcoin saw $61.6 million in inflows. Even after last week’s heavy sell-offs.

Source: CoinShares

Simply put, XRP’s price may be catching ETFs’ seasonal tailwind.

Mix in low leverage and strong spot demand on Binance, and you’ve got a clean setup for a steady vertical move. In this context, a breakout past $3 is looking closer than you might think.

The real test? $3.20. That’s where the ETF catalyst could kick in. If it holds, it might be the trigger XRP’s price needs for a proper breakout.