Ethereum’s MVRV Divergence Suggests Potential Shift to Accumulation Phase

• Ethereum MVRV ratio for stakers at 1.7 versus 1.5 for circulating supply indicates robust holder confidence.

• Nearly 30% of ETH supply is staked, reducing liquid trading pressure and fostering stability.

• Circulating MVRV drop from 1.85 in August to 1.5 reflects profit-taking, setting up for accumulation phase with over 36 million ETH locked.

Discover Ethereum’s MVRV divergence revealing staking strength in 2025. ETH holders show conviction amid volatility—explore implications for accumulation and price resilience today.

What is Ethereum’s MVRV Divergence and Why Does It Matter?

Ethereum’s MVRV divergence refers to the growing gap in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio between staked and circulating ETH supplies, signaling differing investor convictions. Since July 2025, stakers’ MVRV has risen to 1.7, indicating about 70% unrealized gains, while circulating supply holds at 1.5 with 50% gains. This separation underscores long-term commitment among stakers, potentially stabilizing ETH during market corrections and hinting at an accumulation cycle.

How Is Ethereum’s Staking Conviction Influencing Market Dynamics?

Ethereum’s staking conviction is evident as nearly 30% of its total supply—over 36 million ETH—remains locked, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. This lockup reduces available liquidity, curbing sell-off pressures during downturns and encouraging defensive buying at key supports like $3,680, where ETH has bounced four times since recent volatility, each rally averaging 17%. Experts note this trend mirrors historical patterns where high staking ratios precede sustained uptrends, as seen in late 2021 when staked ETH grew amid broader market resets. Short sentences highlight the impact: Staking yields around 4-5% annually attract holders. It diminishes short-term trading volatility. Overall, this fosters a healthier market structure focused on fundamentals rather than speculation. Data from Glassnode corroborates that staker unrealized profits exceed those of traders by 20%, reinforcing ETH’s foundational strength in the proof-of-stake ecosystem.

Stability in a choppy market is the real test of strength.

Notably, Ethereum [ETH] has shown exactly that. Since the crash, it’s tested the $3,680 support four times, each time bouncing roughly 17%. In essence, investor conviction is holding firm as buyers stay defensive.

CryptoQuant data adds context to this strength. Since July, a clear gap has opened in ETH’s MVRV ratio between stakers and the circulating supply. Before that date, both sat around 1.5, showing about 50% unrealized gains.

Source: CryptoQuant

However, since then, the two groups have clearly started to diverge.

As of press time, the MVRV for circulating ETH stands at 1.5, while staked ETH sits at 1.7. This suggests that stakers are sitting on roughly 20% more unrealized profit, forming a “healthy” 10-20% gap between the two.

From a market view, it shows where real conviction sits.

Staked ETH holders are locking in for long-term upside, while liquid tokens face higher profit-taking risk. Structurally, this makes staking (with nearly 70% in unrealized gains) a standout play in Ethereum’s current cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Causes Ethereum’s MVRV Divergence Between Stakers and Circulating Supply?

Ethereum’s MVRV divergence arises from increased staking activity since July 2025, where holders lock ETH to earn rewards, leading to higher unrealized gains for stakers at 1.7 compared to 1.5 for circulating supply. This 20% gap reflects stronger long-term conviction among stakers, as per CryptoQuant metrics, reducing sell pressure and supporting price stability during corrections.

Is Ethereum Entering an Accumulation Phase Based on Staking Trends?

Yes, Ethereum appears to be shifting into an accumulation phase, with over 36 million ETH staked—nearly 30% of supply—locking in profits and signaling holder confidence. This trend, observed in on-chain data, promotes resilience at supports like $3,680 and historically precedes upward momentum, making it a positive indicator for patient investors seeking steady growth.

Key Takeaways

• Ethereum MVRV Divergence Signals Strength: The gap between stakers’ 1.7 MVRV and circulating 1.5 highlights 20% higher unrealized gains for locked ETH, indicating robust long-term conviction amid volatility.
• Staking Locks 30% of Supply: With 36 million ETH staked, liquidity decreases, fostering defensive bounces at $3,680 support and reducing short-term sell-offs, as supported by CryptoQuant analysis.
• Market Reset Paves Way for Accumulation: Cooling MVRV from 1.85 in August to current levels suggests profit-taking, positioning ETH for a structural rotation toward sustained growth driven by staking fundamentals.

ETH’s Shrinking Profits Point to a Market Reset

As mentioned above, Ethereum’s circulating supply MVRV sat at 1.5.

However, that’s a clear drop from the late-August peak of 1.85, when ETH hit its $4,900 all-time high. Simply put, MVRV cooling-off shows around 35% of unrealized gains have been flushed out as STHs took profits.

This compression in profit margins signals that the market is entering a cooling phase. Historically, MVRV levels below 1.0 have marked solid accumulation zones, showing that ETH is slowly resetting for its next leg.

Source: CryptoQuant

However, tying this back to the earlier analysis, there’s more to the story.

Shrinking profits and rising staking conviction are tightening the MVRV spread between staked and circulating ETH. With over 36 million ETH locked, this could mark the early stage of a broader structural rotation.

Simply put, Ethereum looks to be rotating from a trading phase into an accumulation cycle. As staking builds, ETH’s foundation is getting stronger, setting up for a breakout driven by real conviction, not just hype.

Conclusion

In summary, Ethereum’s MVRV divergence between stakers and circulating supply, now at a 20% gap, combined with staking conviction locking nearly 30% of ETH, points to a resilient market reset. As unrealized profits compress from August highs, on-chain indicators from sources like CryptoQuant suggest an impending accumulation phase. Investors should monitor staking trends closely, as they could propel ETH toward new highs in the coming months—consider evaluating your portfolio for long-term positioning in this evolving landscape.