Is the crypto bull market over in 2025? According to trader @PhilakoneCrypto, yes, due to cycle exhaustion after 562 days post-halving and stagnant prices despite institutional buying. However, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton sees ongoing accumulation, suggesting the peak may still lie ahead in Q4.
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Cycle length signals end: Post-halving bull runs historically max at 546 days; we’re at 562.
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Previous cycle from 2018 bottom to 2021 top lasted 1,047 days; current phase exceeds it at 1,078 days from FTX collapse.
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Bitcoin closed October in red for the first time in six years, breaking a green streak amid $3.6 trillion market cap dip of 2.7%.
Discover if the 2025 crypto bull market is truly over with insights from top traders like @PhilakoneCrypto and Fundstrat’s Mark Newton. Explore cycle theories and market signals—stay informed on Bitcoin’s $108,000 dip and plan your next moves today.
Is the Crypto Bull Market Over in 2025?
The crypto bull market in 2025 may indeed be concluding, as argued by seasoned trader @PhilakoneCrypto, who points to extended cycle durations and lackluster price responses to institutional inflows as key indicators of exhaustion. Despite Bitcoin trading around $108,000 after a 2.16% daily drop, broader market dynamics suggest a potential shift, though analysts like Mark Newton from Fundstrat Global Advisors remain optimistic about accumulation phases extending into year-end.
What Are the Four Reasons Citing the End of the Bull Run?
Trader @PhilakoneCrypto, with over 178,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), has outlined four compelling reasons why the crypto bull market is over from a technical standpoint. First, the post-halving period has stretched to 562 days, surpassing the historical maximum of 546 days observed in prior cycles, according to data from blockchain analytics platforms like Glassnode. This overrun indicates diminishing momentum, as bull phases typically peak within these timelines before corrections set in.
Second, viewing the cycle holistically, the run from the 2018 bear market bottom to the 2021 all-time high endured 1,047 days. Measuring from the 2022 FTX collapse, we are now at 1,078 days, further evidencing prolongation beyond norms. Third, Bitcoin’s October 2025 close marked a shift, ending a six-year streak of green months with a red close last week, per CoinMarketCap metrics. This break in pattern aligns with technical fatigue, where support levels like the $110,000 threshold failed, leading to the current $108,000 price.
Finally, institutional and governmental acquisitions of cryptocurrencies have failed to drive corresponding price surges, signaling market exhaustion. @PhilakoneCrypto warns: “Institutions and governments are buying crypto, but we’re not moving. They’re using you as exit liquidity soon and will liquidity hunt you to buy back much cheaper.” This dynamic, supported by on-chain data from sources like Chainalysis showing increased ETF inflows without volatility uplift, underscores zero bullish catalysts at present. Experts from firms like Bloomberg Intelligence echo this, noting that such divergences often precede downturns in maturing asset classes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Bitcoin’s Price Drop in November 2025 a Sign of the Bull Market Ending?
Bitcoin’s decline to $108,000, down 2.16% in the last 24 hours as of early November 2025, aligns with @PhilakoneCrypto’s thesis on cycle exhaustion, where post-halving extensions fail to sustain gains. However, historical patterns from previous halvings show recoveries can follow, but current stagnation amid $3.6 trillion total market cap loss of 2.7% raises red flags for immediate bullish continuation.
How Long Can the 2025 Crypto Cycle Last Based on Historical Data?
Based on past cycles, the 2025 crypto bull market could extend into Q4, as market liquidity grows with institutional participation, according to Fundstrat’s Mark Newton. Voice search queries often highlight that while post-halving bulls averaged 400-500 days historically, maturing factors like ETF approvals have lengthened phases, potentially pushing peaks to late 2025 without abrupt endings.
Key Takeaways
- Cycle Overrun Risks: At 562 days post-halving, the current phase exceeds norms, urging traders to monitor for reversal signals like sustained breaks below $100,000.
- Institutional Impact Muted: Despite heavy buying from entities tracked by Chainalysis, price inaction points to absorption rather than propulsion, a classic exhaustion hallmark.
- Contrarian Bullish Views: Fundstrat’s analysis suggests accumulation persists; investors should diversify and watch Q4 catalysts like regulatory clarity for potential upside.
Conclusion
In summary, the debate on whether the crypto bull market is over in 2025 hinges on technical cycle theories from traders like @PhilakoneCrypto versus accumulation signals noted by Fundstrat’s Mark Newton. With Bitcoin at $108,000 and the market cap at $3.6 trillion, key indicators like extended durations and flat responses to inflows paint a cautious picture, yet historical maturation offers hope for prolonged engagement. As the year progresses, staying attuned to on-chain metrics and expert analyses from sources like Glassnode will be crucial—consider reviewing your portfolio strategies now to navigate potential volatility ahead.
