Bloomberg Warns Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Could Drop Below Key Support Level

• Bitcoin to gold ratio nears critical support at 25, with recent bounces failing to hold, signaling bearish pressure.

• The ratio measures how many ounces of gold equal one Bitcoin and has been flat since peaking near 60 in late 2021.

• Gold has set new record highs amid stagnant Bitcoin performance, highlighting shifting investor preferences toward traditional safe-havens, with data from Bloomberg Intelligence supporting this trend.

Explore the declining Bitcoin to gold ratio and its implications for crypto investors in 2025. Discover expert insights from Bloomberg Intelligence on why gold may outperform. Stay informed—read more now!

What is the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio and Why Does It Matter?

The Bitcoin to gold ratio is a financial metric that illustrates the relative value of Bitcoin against gold by showing how many ounces of gold are equivalent to one Bitcoin. This ratio helps investors assess Bitcoin’s performance as a so-called “digital gold” alternative to traditional precious metals. Recently, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Mike McGlone has warned that the ratio could break down below its long-standing floor of 25, marking Bitcoin’s weakest period relative to gold since 2018 and potentially erasing nearly 60% of its prior gains.

McGlone’s model highlights the ratio’s stagnation over the past five years, with a peak near 60 in late 2021 followed by a flat trajectory as gold achieves new highs. This divergence underscores growing bearish pressure on Bitcoin amid broader market dynamics.

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence warns that Bitcoin could be entering its weakest period relative to gold since 2018. According to his latest model, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could potentially break down below the 25 floor.

This would open the path toward 15, erasing nearly 60% of Bitcoin’s relative strength against the precious metal it once outperformed.

The ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold equal one Bitcoin, peaked near 60 in late 2021. Since then, it has remained flat, mirroring Bitcoin’s difficulty in establishing a clear trend, while gold has quietly set new record highs.

Source: Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence

McGlone notes that the ratio has been stagnant for about five years, and the recent downward trend indicates renewed bearish pressure.

How Is Bitcoin’s Weakness Against Gold Manifesting in Current Market Trends?

Bloomberg Intelligence charts reveal the Bitcoin to gold ratio repeatedly testing the 25 support level this year, with each rebound weaker than the last, pointing to diminishing resilience. This pattern coincides with rising U.S. Treasury yields, where the 10-year yield has surpassed 4%, alongside heightened equity market volatility, which traditionally favors gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold’s steadfast performance amid anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s muted response, suggesting waning investor appetite for riskier cryptocurrencies. As McGlone explains, “This could represent an inflection point for risk assets,” where a breakdown in the ratio might signal a broader structural shift, allowing gold to reassert its dominance as the preferred store of value. Historical data from Bloomberg supports this view, showing gold’s outperformance during periods of economic uncertainty, with the precious metal gaining over 20% year-to-date while Bitcoin struggles to break even.

Experts like McGlone emphasize that after years of Bitcoin challenging gold’s narrative, the current dynamics could force a reevaluation of cryptocurrency’s role in diversified portfolios. Institutional investors, according to reports from financial analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, are increasingly allocating to gold ETFs, which saw inflows exceeding $5 billion in recent months, further bolstering the metal’s position.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Does a Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Below 25 Mean for Crypto Investors?

A drop below 25 in the Bitcoin to gold ratio indicates significant underperformance by Bitcoin relative to gold, potentially signaling reduced confidence in cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge. Investors may need to reassess risk exposure, with Bloomberg Intelligence data showing historical precedents leading to prolonged Bitcoin corrections of up to 60% against traditional assets like gold.

Why Is Gold Outperforming Bitcoin Right Now?

Gold is outperforming Bitcoin due to its established safe-haven status amid rising geopolitical tensions and interest rate fluctuations, while Bitcoin faces volatility from regulatory scrutiny and market saturation. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone, gold’s quiet ascent to new highs reflects steady demand from central banks and investors seeking stability, making it a more reliable option when spoken aloud in searches for secure investments.

Key Takeaways

• Critical Support Level at Risk: The Bitcoin to gold ratio’s repeated tests of 25 show weakening bounces, per Bloomberg charts, urging caution for bullish crypto positions.
• Gold’s Safe-Haven Revival: With new record highs and strong ETF inflows over $5 billion, gold is reclaiming its edge as a stable asset amid economic uncertainty.
• Inflection Point for Markets: Mike McGlone’s warning highlights a potential shift; investors should monitor Treasury yields and equity volatility to anticipate broader risk asset trends.

Conclusion

The declining Bitcoin to gold ratio underscores evolving market preferences, with gold’s resilience highlighting its enduring appeal as a safe-haven amid Bitcoin’s challenges. As Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone notes, this could mark a pivotal moment for risk assets, prompting investors to diversify thoughtfully. Looking ahead, staying attuned to these dynamics will be essential for navigating the interplay between traditional and digital assets in 2025—consider reviewing your portfolio strategies today for long-term stability.

Ugly truth

Charts from Bloomberg show the ratio bouncing off 25 several times this year, with each recovery weaker than the previous one. The latest test occurred alongside a mild rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising above 4%, and an increase in equity volatility.

Gold’s resilience in the face of rate cuts, combined with Bitcoin’s underreaction, suggests fading demand for the cryptocurrency. McGlone describes this as a potential “inflection point for risk assets.” If the pattern breaks lower, he projects a structural change in which gold reclaims its safe-haven dominance.

After years of competing for the same narrative, Bitcoin’s digital gold comparison may soon undergo its most challenging reality check since its creation.