Galaxy Research has revised its Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 downward to $120,000 from $185,000, driven by reduced volatility from ETF inflows, whale sell-offs of over 400,000 BTC in October, and major liquidations disrupting market momentum. Despite this, long-term fundamentals remain strong if the $100,000 support holds.
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Key drivers of the Bitcoin price forecast revision include institutional passive flows dampening volatility and large-scale whale dumps totaling 400,000 BTC in October.
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Recent market events, such as the October 10 flash crash triggering $20 billion in liquidations, have materially impacted Bitcoin’s bull trend.
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Bitcoin exchange inflows peaked at over 400,000 BTC in October, with earlier highs in June and July, signaling increased selling pressure according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant.
Discover Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 at $120,000 amid ETF inflows and whale activity. Explore factors influencing BTC’s future and stay ahead in crypto investments today.
What is Galaxy’s Bitcoin Price Forecast for 2025?
Galaxy’s Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 now stands at $120,000, a significant reduction from the previous $185,000 projection. This adjustment reflects evolving market dynamics, including heightened institutional participation through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have stabilized prices but curtailed sharp upward movements. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, highlighted that while short-term challenges persist, Bitcoin’s structural bull market could endure if it holds above the $100,000 threshold.
Bitcoin exchange inflows, the amount of BTC sent to exchanges, totaled over 400,000 BTC in October and reached a local peak in June and July. Source: CryptoQuant
Thorn’s analysis underscores a shift into what he terms Bitcoin’s “maturity era,” characterized by steady absorption from financial institutions and lower overall volatility. This phase contrasts with the more explosive cycles of the past, where leveraged trading amplified gains and losses. Passive investment strategies, particularly via ETFs, have introduced a more predictable flow of capital, tempering the asset’s traditional price swings.
Contributing to the revised forecast are several interconnected factors. In October, large holders, often referred to as whales, offloaded approximately 400,000 BTC onto exchanges, coinciding with rotations toward alternative assets like gold, artificial intelligence ventures, and stablecoins. These movements have diluted Bitcoin’s momentum, as investors diversify amid broader economic uncertainties.
The October 10 flash crash exemplified these pressures, initiating a cascade of about $20 billion in liquidations across the cryptocurrency ecosystem—the largest such event recorded. This incident not only erased recent gains but also eroded confidence in the ongoing bull run, prompting Galaxy to reassess its outlook with greater caution.
Why Did Galaxy Lower Its Bitcoin Price Prediction?
The decision to lower the Bitcoin price prediction stems from observable shifts in liquidity patterns and the aftermath of high-leverage trading failures. Leveraged liquidations, peaking during the flash crash, wiped out substantial positions and flooded the market with sell orders, as detailed in reports from on-chain analytics platforms like CryptoQuant. This event alone accounted for a notable portion of the $1.3 billion in total liquidations seen in recent trading sessions.
Bitcoin’s price dipped below its 365-day moving average, a critical technical support level, during mid-week volatility, raising concerns among traders. This breach, combined with a 20% decline from the all-time high above $126,000, has fueled debates on market direction. However, experts like trader Lourenço VS note that such corrections—typically ranging from 20% to 25% in this cycle—fall within normal parameters and do not necessarily herald a full bear market.
Bitcoin has dipped below its 365-day exponential moving average and the $100,000 level. Source: TradingView
Thorn emphasized in his public statement on X that institutional flows into ETFs have fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “Bitcoin has entered a new phase, what we call the ‘maturity era,’ in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate,” he wrote. This maturation process, while positive for long-term adoption, introduces headwinds for rapid price appreciation in the near term.
Market data supports this view: Bitcoin exchange inflows surged past 400,000 BTC in October, following peaks in June and July, indicating sustained distribution by large holders. Rotations into gold and AI-related investments further diverted capital, as investors seek stability or growth in non-crypto sectors. Despite these challenges, Thorn maintains optimism on Bitcoin’s fundamentals, asserting that cyclical disruptions do not undermine its core value proposition as a store of value.
Broader context from financial analyses, such as those from CryptoQuant, reveals that while short-term pressures mount, historical patterns suggest resilience. The asset’s performance through previous corrections—often rebounding after 20-30% drawdowns—bolsters the case for a tempered but intact bull market. Galaxy’s revision, therefore, serves as a pragmatic recalibration rather than a signal of despair.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are influencing Galaxy’s revised Bitcoin price forecast for 2025?
Galaxy’s adjustment to a $120,000 Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 is driven by ETF-driven passive inflows reducing volatility, whale sell-offs of 400,000 BTC in October, and the October flash crash’s $20 billion liquidations. These elements have slowed momentum but preserved long-term bullish structural trends if support levels hold firm.
Is the recent Bitcoin price drop signaling a bear market?
The recent Bitcoin price drop below $100,000, marking a 20% correction from highs, aligns with typical cycle patterns of 20-25% pullbacks, as observed by analysts like Lourenço VS. While it breached the 365-day moving average, this does not automatically indicate a bear market, especially with intact fundamentals and institutional support.
Key Takeaways
- Revised Forecast: Galaxy now predicts Bitcoin at $120,000 by 2025, down from $185,000, due to maturing market dynamics and reduced volatility from ETFs.
- Market Pressures: Whale dumps of 400,000 BTC and $20 billion in liquidations from the October crash have disrupted short-term trends, but $100,000 support is key.
- Long-Term Outlook: Maintain exposure to Bitcoin for its strong fundamentals; monitor for sustained above-support trading to confirm ongoing bull conditions.
Conclusion
Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 at $120,000 reflects a market entering maturity, influenced by institutional ETF flows, whale activities, and liquidation events that have why did Galaxy lower its Bitcoin price prediction. While recent dips below key supports like the 365-day moving average and $100,000 level have sparked caution, historical corrections of 20-25% suggest this is navigable territory. As Bitcoin navigates these headwinds, investors should focus on its enduring fundamentals for potential recovery, positioning themselves for measured gains in the evolving crypto landscape.
