RENDER Market Structure: January 23, 2026 Trend Analysis

Current market structure state - trend intact or shifting?

Market Structure Overview

RENDER is trading at $2.07 as of January 23, 2026, showing a 2.48% rise in the last 24 hours. The market structure is generally sideways; neither a full uptrend (HH/HL) nor a downtrend (LH/LL) dominates. Price is holding above EMA20 ($2.05), giving short-term bull signals, but Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and $2.62 resistance forms a strong barrier. RSI at 52.99 is in neutral territory, MACD with negative histogram indicates bearish momentum. In MTF (Multi-Timeframe) structure, 12 strong levels were identified in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 2S/1R in 3D, 3S/3R in 1W. These levels will determine structural integrity. The sideways structure can be interpreted as a consolidation formation with low volatility; a BOS (Break of Structure) could clarify the trend.

Trend Analysis: Up or Down?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) patterns are sought. Recently, the $1.97 low (above $1.8540 swing low) was recorded as HL, and price rose to $2.07, forming a short-term HL. Holding above EMA20 ($2.05) is supported by 2.48% daily gain. If price breaks $2.1115 swing high (bullish BOS), trend continuation is confirmed with a new HH. This opens the way to $2.2710 and $2.5679 resistances; ultimate bull target $3.4238. Short-term bullish EMA structure shows buyers are active. However, neutral RSI and bearish MACD emphasize limited momentum.

Downtrend Risk

For a downtrend, Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) are monitored. The last 24h range is squeezed between $1.97-$2.11; $2.1115 acts as LH resistance. Supertrend bearish and BTC downtrend effect increase LL risk. If $2.0613 swing low breaks (bearish BOS), descent to $1.8540 accelerates and LL pattern completes. Bearish target $0.6984. MACD negative histogram reinforces seller dominance. From sideways structure, $2.0613 is critical for downward CHoCH (Change of Character); upon break, LH/LL dominance begins.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (BOS) confirms trend change. Bullish BOS: close above $2.1115 (score 67/100), strengthens HH/HL structure and opens $2.2710 (66/100). Bearish BOS: below $2.0613 (77/100 score), breaks sideways and tests $1.8540 support. In higher timeframes, 1W supports (related to $84k BTC corr.) support LL. CHoCH definition: For bull, bearish swing low not broken while bullish high breaks; reverse for bear. In current sideways, any BOS triggers volatility. Watch: $2.62 Supertrend resistance, if not broken, bearish bias remains.

Swing Points and Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing high $2.1115 (67/100), 24h peak and BOS level. Previous $2.2710 (66/100) and $2.5679 (62/100); these limited downside as LHs. Break does not invalidate bull structure but requires momentum. Swing highs are seller entry points; if not held, buyers enter.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing low $2.0613 (77/100), critical support and HL candidate. Below it $1.8540 (75/100), strong MTF support. Bullish internal structure preserved unless these lows break. Swing lows are buyers' defense line; hold leads to HL and trend shift.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,609 (-0.44%) in downtrend; key supports $88,379/$86,759, resists $89,570/$92,315. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance signal caution for altcoins. RENDER has high BTC corr.; if BTC falls below $88k, RENDER breaks $2.06 and triggers LL. BTC recovery above $92k supports RENDER $2.11 BOS. BTC downtrend continuation turns RENDER sideways into bearish CHoCH. Watch: If BTC $89,570 resist not broken, alts remain under pressure. Details for RENDER Spot Analysis and RENDER Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook sideways-dominant, short-term HL with bullish bias but bearish indicators risky. $2.1115 BOS required for HH/HL; failure tests $2.0613 LL. MTF strong levels (12 total) balance the structure. Trend continuation bull $3.42, reversal bear $0.70. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; HH/HL bull, LH/LL bear defines – trade edge with BOS/CHoCH. No news impact, pure structure focus. Attention: BTC corr. critical, dominance bearish. Spot/futures traders position with swing levels.