TON: Rise or Fall? 15 January 2026 Scenario Analysis

TON is standing at a critical crossroads at the $1.75 level. Although the short-term downtrend dominates, the RSI being in the neutral zone (44.46) and balanced support/resistance levels across multiple timeframes (MTF) make both bullish and bearish scenarios possible. The daily 1.97% loss and narrow range ($1.73-$1.81) may signal a volatility breakout. Traders should be prepared for both directions and monitor trigger levels.

Current Market Situation

TON is currently trading at the $1.75 level and recorded a $84.83M volume with a 1.97% drop over the last 24 hours. The price range is stuck between $1.73-$1.81, reflecting a consolidation phase. The overall trend is downward: Price is below EMA20 ($1.76), MACD histogram is negative and giving a bearish signal, and Supertrend is in bearish mode pointing to $1.84 resistance.

RSI at 44.46 is in the neutral zone, no oversold conditions but momentum is weak. MTF analysis shows 13 strong levels: 1D (4 supports/2 resistances), 3D (1 support/2 resistances), 1W (3 supports/4 resistances). This distribution indicates that resistance weight in higher timeframes supports the downside, but short-term supports offer recovery potential. Key supports: $1.7313 (67/100), $1.6850 (62/100). Resistances: $1.7463 (86/100), $1.8026 (72/100), $1.9500 (66/100). News flow is calm, so technical levels will be decisive. Current R/R ratio is balanced (~1:1.1) based on bull target $1.9500 (+11.4%) and bear target $1.5334 (-12.6%).

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a strong volume breakout above the $1.7463 resistance (86/100 score) is required first. This level overlaps with short-term EMA20 ($1.76), and a breakout could trigger the MACD histogram to approach the zero line. Momentum then builds toward $1.8026; RSI should rise above 50 and Supertrend should turn bullish. On the 1D timeframe, 4 strong supports (e.g., $1.7313) can hold during pullbacks. Despite 4 resistances on 1W in MTF, they can be overcome with positive catalysts in overall market sentiment (e.g., BTC recovery). Volume increase and candle closes (e.g., bullish engulfing) are confirmation requirements. Invalidation criterion: Loss of $1.7313 support invalidates the scenario and turns it bearish.

Target Levels

First target $1.8026 (72/100), followed by $1.9500 (66/100, 11.4% upside). In more aggressive moves, 1W targets above $2.10 can be tested, but Fibonacci extensions and MTF resistances should be monitored. For protection, a stop-loss below entry at $1.7313 is recommended (for educational purposes). This scenario could trigger short squeezes and momentum buying, providing traders with detailed chart tracking on the TON Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a volume breakout below the $1.7313 support (67/100 score). This level aligns with the 24h low ($1.73), and a breakout accelerates distance from EMA20. MACD negative histogram expands, RSI drops below 40, and Supertrend strengthens its bearish signal. In MTF, 4 resistances on 1W and 2 on 3D can limit upside moves. Volume increase (especially selling pressure) and bearish candle patterns (e.g., shooting star) provide confirmation. Risk factors include general crypto weakness or liquidity withdrawal. Invalidation criterion: Break above $1.7463 resistance invalidates the scenario and shifts to bullish.

Protection Levels

First protection $1.6850 (62/100), followed by $1.5334 target (12.6% downside). In deeper drops, 1D supports can extend to $1.50, measured with Fibonacci retracements. Wait for $1.7313 breakout for entry, stop-loss above $1.7463. This scenario offers risk management tools on the TON Futures Analysis page for leveraged positions.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: For bullish, close above $1.7463 + volume increase + RSI>50. For bearish, close below $1.7313 + no MACD divergence + selling dominance in volume. Confirmation signals: Candle patterns, EMA crosses, and MTF alignment. In both scenarios, the $1.73-$1.75 pivot zone is critical; reaction here determines direction. With low volatility (narrow range), filter breakouts by volume. Traders should manage risks using each scenario's invalidation (bullish: below $1.7313; bearish: above $1.7463).

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios for TON are equally likely; while the current downtrend favors bears, support scores offer recovery chances. Monitoring points: 1. $1.7463 resistance test (bull confirmation). 2. $1.7313 support test (bear confirmation). 3. Volume and RSI changes. 4. BTC correlation (positive supports bulls). Prioritize daily closes and MTF levels. This analysis is designed to help traders make their own decisions; markets are dynamic, update continuously. Check relevant pages for spot and futures.