Bitcoin Hovers Near $77,700 as Pizza Day Stack Loses $328M, Yields Above 5% Cap Rally

Bitcoin News

The 16th anniversary of Bitcoin's first commercial transaction landed with notably less fanfare than last year, as the 10,000 BTC once used to buy two pizzas now carries a notional value of roughly $777.87 million. That figure represents a $328 million drop from the same milestone in 2025, when the identical stack was worth approximately $1.106 billion at a $110,568 spot price. The 29.7% year-over-year decline marks the steepest Pizza Day drawdown since 2015, when prices were still recovering from a brutal bear market. The retreat captures how dramatically sentiment has shifted from October's euphoria.

Bitcoin traded near $77,733 by midday Hong Kong hours, holding within a tight range after dipping as low as $76,685 and repeatedly failing to reclaim $78,000 during U.S. sessions. The flagship asset has effectively flatlined over the past 24 hours, with intraday volatility absorbing roughly $200 million in liquidations split almost evenly between long and short positions. Market researchers characterize the recent flush as a leverage cleanup rather than directional capitulation. The price action keeps Bitcoin pinned between immediate resistance near $78,500 and a defended support shelf, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts to break the multi-week consolidation pattern.

Derivatives positioning paints a more nuanced picture than the spot chart suggests. Open interest across major perpetuals has held relatively steady through the recent selloff, while funding rates have stayed flat or slightly negative — a configuration signaling traders were not piling into leveraged longs ahead of the drop. HashKey Research senior analyst Tim Sun noted that those liquidated were largely funds attempting short-term bottom fishing rather than directional bulls. The absence of aggressive long buildup undermines arguments that the move marks a structural trend reversal, instead pointing to a market clearing speculative excess while leaving the broader range intact.

The current spot level sits nearly 38% below the all-time high of $126,000 printed on October 6, 2025, when strong institutional flows and muted retail participation drove the cycle peak during a powerful bull market. That rally unraveled within four days. On October 10, sweeping U.S. tariff announcements targeting Chinese imports erased close to $200 billion from total crypto market capitalization, dragging Bitcoin from $122,000 down to $107,000 in a single session. The drawdown set the tone for the remainder of 2025 and bled into what has become the weakest opening quarter on record since the post-2018 lows.

The harder ceiling on price is macroeconomic. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has recently traded above 5%, lifting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and tightening broader financial conditions in the process. Persistent oil and inflation risks tied to geopolitical instability continue to weigh on appetite for speculative positions, and analysts argue there is no obvious catalyst pulling fresh capital into crypto under those conditions. Until long-term yields ease meaningfully, even constructive on-chain readings struggle to translate into spot demand, leaving Bitcoin tethered to bond-market dynamics rather than its own native flow data this cycle.

The defended zone between $75,000 and $77,000 remains the line traders are watching most closely. Researchers describe the region as a structurally important short-term floor, with a clean break below it required to invalidate the current consolidation thesis. A meaningful de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could cool crude prices, soften inflation expectations and unlock room for yields to retrace — the cleanest macro path to a Bitcoin rebound. Absent such a catalyst, the market is likely to remain range-bound and defensive, with rallies capped near $80,000 and dips bought aggressively in the lower band as positioning resets.

Spot price of $77,622 sits razor-thin above immediate support at $77,583, with deeper structural floors at $76,026 and $74,281 anchoring the downside map. Resistance clusters at $78,477, $80,531 and $82,850 define the recovery sequence. The 14-period RSI at 48.53 reflects a balanced market with no clear momentum bias, while the MACD remains in a bearish configuration and trend stays sideways. A daily candlestick close above $78,477 would unlock the $80,531 zone. A breakdown beneath $76,026 invalidates the current floor and exposes the $74,281 demand area.