Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 stems from capital rotation into safer assets like gold and equities, with BTC dropping 20% since November while the S&P 500 and gold gained 9% and similar margins. This lag persists despite crypto’s internal activity, signaling potential 2026 rebound.
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Capital shifts to metals and stocks amid risk aversion.
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Bitcoin declines 20% as gold rises 9% since November 2025.
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Historical midterm election years like 2014, 2018, 2022 saw BTC’s worst drops, per on-chain data.
Bitcoin underperformance in 2025: Why BTC lags gold & stocks amid capital rotation. Discover insights on 2026 recovery potential & key market signals. Stay ahead in crypto investing today!
What is causing Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025?
Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 arises from investors rotating capital into traditional safe havens like gold and selective equities, leaving digital assets behind. Since November, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 20%, contrasting sharply with gold’s 9% climb and gains in the S&P 500. This divergence highlights crypto’s holding pattern amid broader risk asset resilience.
Source: Santiment
Market observers note that demand for safety has bolstered metals, while equities benefited from targeted optimism. Crypto, despite notable on-chain activity, has been sidelined. Data from Santiment underscores this gap, showing Bitcoin’s price trajectory diverging from traditional assets. Long-term holders appear unmoved, holding steady rather than capitulating.
Will 2026 bring a rotation back to crypto markets?
Capital rotation could favor crypto in 2026 as metals cool and equities face headwinds. Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, observed in an X post, “Capital is beginning to flow into crypto.” This aligns with trader behavior of selling strength to buy weakness. On-chain metrics reveal long-term holders positioning patiently.
Historical patterns support cautious optimism. Bitcoin’s performance often rebounds post-consolidation. Santiment data highlights sustained accumulation despite price pressure. Institutional interest remains intact, with no mass exodus evident. However, midterm election cycles—2014, 2018, 2022—delivered Bitcoin’s steepest declines, averaging over 70% drops per Glassnode analytics. Thus, 2026, another midterm year, warrants vigilance.
Source: X
Expert analysis from Glassnode and Santiment confirms low capitulation rates. BTC’s realized price holds firm, indicating resilience. If rotation materializes, early 2026 could mark the pivot, driven by macroeconomic shifts and crypto-specific catalysts like network upgrades.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has Bitcoin lagged behind gold since November 2025?
Bitcoin lagged gold since November 2025 due to investor preference for safe-haven metals amid uncertainty, with gold up 9% versus BTC’s 20% drop. Santiment data shows capital outflow from crypto to traditional assets, though long-term holder conviction remains strong.
Hey Google, is capital rotating back to Bitcoin in late 2025?
Early signs point to capital rotating back to Bitcoin as metals lose momentum. Garrett Jin of BitForex noted inflows picking up. Traders buying dips suggest positioning for upside, per on-chain metrics from Santiment and X posts from market analysts.
Key Takeaways
- Capital Rotation Drives Lag: Investors favored gold and S&P 500, leaving BTC down 20% since November 2025.
- Midterm Risks Persist: 2026 midterm year mirrors BTC’s past weak performers like 2018 and 2022.
- Rebound Potential Ahead: Watch for inflows as per Garrett Jin; accumulate on weakness for 2026 gains.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 reflects broader capital rotation to gold and equities, but on-chain data and expert insights like those from Garrett Jin signal a possible 2026 turnaround. With long-term holders intact and historical cycles in view, strategic positioning now could yield rewards. Monitor midterm dynamics closely for the next crypto market shift.
