Bitcoin Rebounds 6% to Reclaim $60K on Dovish Fed Chair Signal

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp reversal, rebounding roughly 6% from a fresh year-to-date low to reclaim the $60,000 handle. The largest cryptocurrency slipped below $57,000 in early trading before buyers stepped in, and it briefly touched $61,000 during the recovery. The bounce followed a bruising stretch that dragged the asset to its weakest level of the year, pressured by heavy selling and a rush into the dollar. Our reading of the intraday tape shows the snapback carried genuine conviction, though a single-day move of this size is not unusual near capitulation zones. Whether this marks a durable bottom for Bitcoin remains an open question.

The rebound gained traction after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, that inflation risks were receding. The remark cooled expectations for near-term rate hikes and encouraged a broad risk-on move across equities and digital assets. Warsh emphasized a data-dependent stance, keeping the door open in either direction. Softer readings from the ADP private payrolls report and the ISM manufacturing index reinforced the dovish tone. For a market that has largely priced in tightening through October, the shift in rhetoric offered a rare tailwind, helping the asset claw back the psychologically important $60,000 threshold that had defined recent trading.

A separate catalyst came from Meta’s announcement that it would open its data-center capacity to outside customers, marking its entry into the cloud business. The news lifted Meta shares sharply and fed the day’s risk-on mood, indirectly supporting crypto. The reaction in chip stocks, however, was less enthusiastic: traders read the move as a sign that Meta will keep prioritizing internal AI use rather than fueling the data-center buildout that drives semiconductor demand. Asian chip names opened lower as a result, capping the upside. The episode underscored how tightly digital-asset sentiment now tracks the AI-driven equity complex, where a single corporate headline can reset intraday direction.

Persistent outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remained the dominant drag. The products bled capital for nine consecutive trading sessions, and June closed with net redemptions of roughly $4.5 billion — the heaviest monthly outflow since the funds launched in early 2024. The exodus points to a buyer’s strike among the institutional flows that had underpinned earlier rallies, while many altcoins suffered even sharper drawdowns. Fund-flow data show that the absence of fresh ETF demand, rather than aggressive spot selling, has been the primary weight on price. Until inflows resume, rebounds like this one risk running into supply from sidelined holders looking to exit.

Sentiment took a further hit as Citi cut its 12-month price forecast for the asset to $82,000 from $112,000, a downward revision of nearly 27%. The bank cited waning momentum and the fading of the ETF-driven demand that had powered the coin to its all-time high. The revised target still sits well above current levels, implying meaningful upside from here, but the direction of the change reinforced a cautious institutional narrative. Coming alongside the ETF outflows, the downgrade added to a wave of bearish positioning that pushed the market into a technical downtrend and stoked talk of a deeper bear market.

Geopolitics and macro data rounded out the picture. Iran said its talks in Qatar had concluded and would be rescheduled after an upcoming state funeral, a development that eased war-premium fears and helped push crude oil back toward $67 a barrel — roughly its pre-conflict level. Attention now turns to the US employment report, with non-farm payrolls expected at 113,000 and the unemployment rate seen at 4.3%. A softer print would likely extend the risk-on relief, while a reading above 200,000 could revive July rate-hike bets and pressure risk assets. Traders are treating tonight’s data as the next decisive test for direction.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $61,115 resistance at 75/100, a strong barrier built on the confluence of a high-volume node and the R1 pivot, with the next hurdle at $63,799 (67/100, anchored by Fibonacci 0.236 and the ATR upper band). On the downside, the engine scores $57,768 support at a robust 77/100, drawn from the previous-day low and the lower Bollinger Band. Derivatives data show a modest positive funding rate of 0.0062% and $11.9 billion in open interest, while the long/short account ratio of 1.91 signals crowded long positioning. With RSI at 39 and the Fear & Greed Index mired at 19 (Extreme Fear), a decisive reclaim of $61,115 would open the bullish case; a break of $57,768 would invalidate the thesis.