Bitcoin Rebounds to $77K on Trump's Iran Deal as Analysts Warn of $60K Downside

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin clawed back nearly all of its weekend losses on Saturday after President Donald Trump announced that a peace agreement with Iran and other Middle Eastern nations had been largely negotiated. The largest cryptocurrency had tumbled close to $74,000 in early Saturday trade following a roughly 4% slide that began late Friday, but a Truth Social post from the president triggered an immediate bid, propelling BTC back above $76,700 within minutes. The announcement marked one of the most aggressive intraday reversals Bitcoin has produced this month, illustrating how sensitive risk assets remain to geopolitical headlines during a period of fragile macro positioning and thin weekend liquidity.

A key plank of the proposed framework involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments transit. Easing tensions over the chokepoint removes a meaningful tail risk that has weighed on global markets, and traders quickly priced the development into both energy and digital-asset benchmarks. Bitcoin's response was particularly sharp because leveraged short positioning had built up during the earlier slump, and the headline forced a partial unwind. Whether the agreement is finalized in the coming days will determine if Saturday's rally extends, or merely supplies a short-covering pop that fades into the weekly open.

Even with the recovery, prominent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 region in 2026 after losing what he described as a crucial support zone between $75,000 and $76,000. The breakdown occurred Friday, capping a seventh consecutive month of bear market conditions. Van de Poppe noted that corrections triggered on Fridays often flip back bullish, but cautioned that without a clean reclaim of $76,600 the path of least resistance remains downward. Polymarket odds currently assign a 51% probability of Bitcoin reaching $55,000 before 2027, with a 31% probability priced for a $45,000 print.

Offsetting that bearish scenario, multiple Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures gaps remain unfilled above spot, with the highest sitting beyond $79,000. CME gaps form when futures close at one price on Friday afternoon and reopen at a different level on Sunday evening, and history shows Bitcoin tends to revisit them eventually. A run higher to close those voids would align neatly with a continuation of the Trump-driven rebound. Derivatives positioning data also shows funding rates flipped negative during Friday's flush, an environment that typically precedes sharp short-squeeze episodes when sentiment momentarily improves.

Onchain dynamics complicate any deeply bearish thesis. Roughly 71% of the circulating supply now sits with long-term holders, a cohort that has historically refused to capitulate until prices retest cycle averages. Their tight grip makes a sustained break below $60,000 statistically improbable, according to wallet-cohort data tracked across major analytics dashboards. Corporate treasuries, miners with sub-$30,000 cost bases, and ETF custodians collectively absorbed a meaningful share of new issuance this quarter, draining float available for spot selling. As long as that distribution behaviour holds, downside moves tend to encounter aggressive dip buying rather than cascading liquidations.

Trader Matthew Hyland offered a more constructive framing, arguing that Bitcoin's 90-day rally off the February low near $60,000 has no precedent inside any prior bear market in BTC history. He highlighted that the break of high time frame resistance has also marked the start of a bull market rally the prior three times. That observation reframes the current pullback as a healthy retest rather than the resumption of a downtrend. Whether the constructive read survives depends on Bitcoin's ability to defend the high-$74,000 zone on a closing basis and recover its 365-day moving average, currently sitting close to $80,000.

BTC trades around $76,900, up 1.15% on the day, with the broader trend still classified as a downtrend. Immediate resistance sits at $76,730, followed by $78,612 and $80,637, while support tiers cluster at $74,985, $73,638 and $70,280. RSI prints 43.21, leaving room before oversold conditions emerge, but the MACD remains bearish and confirms downside momentum has yet to fully exhaust. A daily close back above $78,600 with rising volume would invalidate the bearish structure and open a path toward $80,637. Conversely, losing $73,638 would expose the $70,280 demand cluster and validate the $60,000 scenario.