Bitcoin Slips Below $77K as Waller Eyes Rate Hike, Pizza Day Stack Worth $777M

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 on Friday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered a hawkish-leaning speech in Frankfurt titled "Policy Risks Have Changed." Waller, who had backed 75 basis points of cuts in late 2025, said he could no longer rule out future rate hikes if inflation expectations become unanchored. The pivot rattled risk assets and pushed Bitcoin (BTC) down roughly 4.5% over the past week as real yields climbed and the dollar firmed, eroding demand for non-yielding holdings. The token traded near $76,945 by mid-session, with macro headwinds dominating the narrative across digital assets.

Rate-futures traders responded to Waller's tone shift by repricing the path of monetary policy. The October 28 FOMC meeting now carries roughly a 40% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, with the "hold" outcome leading at near 49%. Headline CPI rose 0.6% in April and core PCE inflation has reached approximately 3.3% year-over-year, keeping inflation stubbornly above target. The forward curve steepened hawkishly through the day. The shift undermines the soft-landing playbook that fueled the late-2025 bull market in spot Bitcoin and broader risk markets, with consumer sentiment continuing to deteriorate.

Bitcoin's weakness contrasted sharply with traditional equities on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed into fresh price discovery at the Wall Street open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 coiling just beneath their own record peaks. BTC/USD, meanwhile, retreated nearly 1.2% intraday as US-session selling persisted through the week. The decoupling from equities marks a notable rotation: legacy capital favored cyclical industrials and large-cap tech over digital assets while Bitcoin failed to confirm the broader risk-on signal. Analysts highlighted weakening crypto correlations with the Nasdaq as a meaningful structural shift this quarter.

The Coinbase Premium Index continued circling monthly lows, an on-chain signal of subdued US spot demand. Order-flow attribution showed Binance buyers shouldering the bulk of bid-side pressure while domestic venues lagged. The premium gauge — measuring the spread between Coinbase USD pricing and offshore stablecoin pairs — has historically tracked institutional appetite via spot Bitcoin ETF creation flows. The persistent discount suggests ETF accumulation has cooled meaningfully from Q4 2025 highs. Without a return of American buy-side pressure, BTC may struggle to reclaim the $80,531 resistance zone in the near term despite supportive equity strength.

Trump Media & Technology Group (Nasdaq: DJT) transferred 2,650 BTC worth roughly $205 million to a centralized exchange between 1:22 and 2:22 a.m. GMT on Friday, on-chain data shows. The move is widely interpreted as preparation for a potential disposal. DJT originally acquired 11,542 BTC at an average cost basis of $118,522 per coin for approximately $1.37 billion — leaving the firm sitting on roughly $455 million in unrealized losses at current prices. After Friday's outflow, visible holdings stand near 6,892 BTC valued at approximately $533 million. The transfer follows the company's recent withdrawal of its spot Bitcoin ETF application.

Friday also marked the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day, commemorating Laszlo Hanyecz's 10,000-BTC purchase of two Papa John's pizzas on May 22, 2010. The transaction — worth roughly $41 at the time — stands as the first known commercial use of Bitcoin for real-world goods. Revalued at today's spot, the 10,000-coin stack is worth approximately $777.87 million, down $328 million from last year's anniversary and 29.7% below the May 2025 mark when BTC traded at $110,568. The retreat began on October 6, 2025, after Bitcoin printed an all-time high near $126,000 before tariff-driven liquidations triggered the largest single-session deleveraging in crypto history.

Technically, Bitcoin sits in a sideways regime with momentum tilting bearish. Price near $76,945 is pressuring the first support cluster at $76,010, with deeper buyers waiting at $74,333 and $72,631. Resistance stacks at $77,612, $78,884, and the structurally important $80,531 level. RSI at 44.58 reflects a neutral-to-soft posture without oversold capitulation, while MACD signals bearish continuation. A reclaim of $77,612 on volume would reopen the path to $80,531 and revalidate dip-buyers. Conversely, a daily close beneath $74,333 would invalidate the consolidation thesis and expose the $72,631 zone as the next defensive line.