Bitcoin Weekly RSI Reclaims 50 as Long-Term Holders Hit 71.6%, Cuban Dumps Most BTC

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index has retested the 50 level for the first time since February, a technical move that analysts say sharply reduces the probability of fresh lows. The reading came 105 days after the weekly RSI entered oversold territory for only the fourth time on record. Historically, the asset has launched long-term expansion phases when the RSI reclaimed that threshold from oversold conditions. The 2022 cycle stands as the lone exception, when an FTX-driven collapse pushed prices lower without an RSI retest. Current readings suggest the chance of revisiting fresh lows has become extremely slim, framing the next leg as a potential rally toward new highs.

Long-term holder behavior reinforces the constructive setup. Wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than one year now control 71.6% of the circulating supply, with the long-term cohort climbing back above 15.04 million BTC for the first time since October 1, 2025. The one-year-plus holder metric has returned to a historical oversold accumulation zone that preceded major upside cycles in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022. Cycle highs in 2017 and 2021 instead formed when long-term distribution accelerated — a pattern absent today. Steady accumulation by patient capital is tightening available float, a dynamic that historically precedes sustained advances and a turn toward a bull market.

Miner behavior offers a more guarded read on the bottoming thesis. On-chain flow data shows mining operations have not positioned as though the cyclical low is confirmed, with reserve trends and outflow patterns suggesting continued caution at current price levels. That hesitancy is consistent with prior bottom formations, where capitulation and distribution from miners often persists before a definitive trend reversal. With Bitcoin trading near $77,500 and roughly 38% below its October all-time high of $126,080, the gap between long-term holder accumulation and miner caution highlights a transitional phase rather than a confirmed launch into a fresh expansion leg.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban has parted with the bulk of his Bitcoin holdings, declaring the asset has lost the plot as a hedge against fiat weakness and geopolitical risk. Cuban, who long positioned Bitcoin as a superior alternative to gold, said his conviction broke during the U.S.–Iran conflict earlier this year. Gold rallied to a record above $5,500 per ounce during that period, while Bitcoin failed to follow through on expected upside whenever the dollar weakened. "It's not the hedge I expected it to be," Cuban said, citing his expectation that Bitcoin should have appreciated each time dollar strength faltered.

The performance picture is more nuanced than Cuban's framing suggests. Since late February, when U.S.–Iran tensions first surfaced, Bitcoin has gained more than 16% while gold has slipped over 15% from its peak. Across a 12-month horizon, however, Bitcoin is down roughly 30% and trades 38% beneath its October high near $126,080. Gold, despite its recent retreat, remains up over 37% on the year and commands a market capitalization above $31 trillion — the largest of any asset globally. Defenders argue the window of analysis shapes the conclusion, with Bitcoin retaining advantages in scarcity and portability that broad benchmarks fail to capture.

Cuban drew sharp distinctions within crypto despite trimming Bitcoin. He voiced continued confidence in Ethereum, citing real utility through DeFi protocols and on-chain applications as a durable underpinning for the network. Meme coins and speculative tokens he labeled garbage, cementing his break with the broader retail-driven corner of the market. His earlier 2021 allocation skewed roughly 60% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 10% in other assets, alongside a public profile that included NFT enthusiasm, transparently shared wallets, and accepting Dogecoin for Mavericks merchandise. The pivot signals a high-profile investor narrowing exposure to assets he views as utility-backed rather than narrative-driven.

Bitcoin trades near $77,770, up a modest 0.17% over 24 hours as the chart settles into a sideways candlestick pattern. Immediate support sits at $77,574, with deeper backstops at $76,124 and $74,281. Overhead resistance is layered at $78,434, $80,425 and $82,791. RSI at 48.29 reflects neutral momentum, while the MACD signal remains bearish — a divergence that argues for chop before any decisive break. A reclaim of $78,434 with rising volume would shift the structure constructive, opening the door to $80,425. Loss of $76,124 invalidates the bottoming thesis and exposes $74,281, where buyers must defend to prevent a deeper bear market leg.