BoJ Interest Rate Decision Strengthened the Yen, BTC Declined

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate steady at 0.75%, but the call for a rate hike from three members resonated in the markets. This 6-3 split vote indicates the widest gap under Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen strengthened immediately, pulling the dollar/yen pair to 158.95. Bitcoin remained under pressure, with the BTC/JPY pair declining. Markets are now pricing in a June rate hike with 74% probability.

BoJ's Inflation and Growth Forecast Revision

Although the bank did not change interest rates in line with expectations, it raised its core inflation forecast to 2.8% for this fiscal year and lowered its growth forecast from 1% to 0.5%. Behind the decision lie disruptions in energy flows due to the war in the Strait of Hormuz; global energy prices are pushing importer economies like Japan toward inflation. Stock traders immediately highlighted a mid-June hike. According to Bloomberg, BoJ watchers had already reached consensus in this direction.

Bitcoin/JPY Decline and Current BTC Technical Data

The decline in the Bitcoin/yen pair aligned with dollar-based weakness; bitFlyer data confirms this. BTC is currently trading at $76,285.55, down -0.63% in the last 24 hours. RSI at 55.44 is in the neutral zone, trend sideways but Supertrend giving bearish signal. EMA 20: $75,405. Supports: S1 $72,809 (strong, 4.45% away, Ichimoku Kijun etc.), S2 $74,690. Resistances: R1 $80,810 (strong), R2 $76,526. Visit our BTC detailed analysis page for a detailed review. Other central banks and investor groups are also evaluating similar hawkish signals. Check BTC futures for futures trading.

Yen Strengthening and Carry Trade Unwind Risk

The yen's strengthening recalls its role as a funding currency in the long-standing low-interest-rate environment. Traders had borrowed in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad; now unwind risk is back on the agenda. It could trigger a sell-off wave in global risk assets like in August 2024. However, February flow data shows Japan continues to increase its US Treasury holdings; carry trade positions remain alive. This situation could create additional pressure in the BTC spot market.