On-chain data shows the BTC balance on exchanges has fallen to about 2.936 million, a fresh cycle low, according to analyst Murphy. The outflow suggests reserves are moving off exchanges rather than being transferred for sale.

The last time the exchange balance was in this range was after the FTX flash crash on December 17, 2022, underscoring a historically tight liquidity backdrop during stress events.

For Binance specifically, the Binance BTC balance has tracked notable intraday moves in price; four rapid price moves have occurred since early 2024 in tandem with balance shifts, highlighting near-term liquidity sensitivity.

On-chain signals show whale wallets (≥1 million and ≥10 million USD) withdrawing from exchanges, while retail investors with balances under 100k USD tend to deposit. Analysts note that the BTC rebound from around $80k remains to be fulfilled.