Kalshi Research Launches, Demonstrating Predictive Markets Outperform Wall Street Inflation Forecasts by 40% (Up to 67% in Large Deviations)

Kalshi Research has launched to illuminate the predictive-market landscape by granting researchers access to Kalshi’s internal data, enabling methodical study of market-based forecasting and related topics. The initiative enhances transparency and positions Kalshi as a data-driven source for macro insights within the crypto and broader financial ecosystem.

In its inaugural report, Kalshi contends that its inflation projections surpassed the Wall Street consensus over a 25-month window. From February 2023 to mid-2025, CPI year-over-year forecasts derived from predictive markets registered an average error 40% lower than consensus, with the advantage widening to as much as 67% during periods of significant economic deviation.