BTC April Rally is Baseless: CryptoQuant Warning
BTC/USDT
$18,706,078,746.65
$78,914.12 / $76,320.42
Change: $2,593.70 (3.40%)
-0.0033%
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Contents
Bitcoin April Rally: Rise from 66.000 to 79.000 Dollars
Bitcoin jumped from 66.000 dollars to 79.000 dollars in April, achieving an impressive 20% rally. However, CryptoQuant's weekly report published on Thursday reveals that this rise lacks fundamentals. While perpetual futures demand hit records, the real buyers' spot accumulations in the market remained negative throughout the month. The firm emphasizes that in the 'visible demand' measurement, the 30-day on-chain spot buying activity never turned positive. This situation indicates the dominance of speculative positions and increases price fragility. Check spot data for BTC detailed analysis.
CryptoQuant Report: The Negative Reality of Spot Demand
The report explains in detail that spot demand reflects real Bitcoin purchases, while futures represent leveraged bets. During the April rally, futures demand grew while spot visible demand contracted. This divergence is based on 30-day moving averages in on-chain metrics and shows that real HODLers (holders) stayed on the sidelines. Experts associate the persistent negative spot accumulation with the 'shadow banking' effect; that is, derivative markets are overshadowing spot.
| Metric | April Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Visible Demand | Negative (30 days) | No real buying |
| Futures Demand | Record level | Speculative dominance |
| Price Change | +%20 | Baseless rally |
Futures vs Spot: Dangerous Market Divergence
BTC futures demand is crushing spot, while open interest is racing to records. Technically, persistently positive funding rates are encouraging long positions, but low spot volume is increasing liquidity risk. This dynamic can trigger a leveraged liquidation cascade; for example, the pullback to 76.400 dollars confirms exactly that.
2022 Bear Market Similarity: 70% Drop Warning
The April rally points to similar dynamics on the threshold of the 2022 bear market. During that period, the spot-futures divergence led to a collapse resulting in a 70% value loss from Bitcoin's peak. CryptoQuant emphasizes the repetition of the current pattern: Speculative bubbles are ready to burst, on-chain transfer volumes are declining.
Bull Score Index: Transition from 50 to 40 into Bear Territory
CryptoQuant's Bull Score index fell from 50 to 40 in April, entering bear territory. This index signals ongoing downside risk from the combination of on-chain (MVRV, SOPR) and market indicators (RSI, fear & greed). The firm warns that the 79.000 dollar peak cannot be sustainable without visible demand turning positive.
Risks and Strategies for BTC Investors
Despite the cautious stance of data providers like CryptoQuant, Myriad prediction market and Dastan platforms remain optimistic in the short term. Investors should monitor spot accumulation; if it stays negative, shorten long positions. In the long term, ETF flows may support spot, but speculation currently dominates.