CFTC Eyes Prediction Markets, House Weighs 7 Tax Bills, Japan Banks Plan Stablecoin

Crypto News

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission unveiled a proposed rule overhaul on June 10 governing event contracts traded on prediction markets. The framework amends Rule 40.11 and adds a new Appendix F, creating a systematic test for whether a contract relates to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or unlawful activity. Sports-related contracts would be permitted, with the agency stating they are unlikely to raise public-interest concerns, while wagers tied to terrorism or assassination remain restricted. Each contract would face a 90-day review before approval or rejection. The chairman said regulators must safeguard market integrity without obstructing responsible innovation. The plan reverses a Biden-era proposal that was scrapped earlier this year.

The House Ways and Means Committee held a legislative hearing on June 9 examining seven crypto tax measures — six Republican bills and one Democratic discussion draft. Chairman Jason Smith declared that the era of treating digital assets as a passing fad is over, citing more than 60 million American holders. Proposals include a de minimis exemption for small transactions, deferral of mining and staking income, and a DeFi-relevant safe harbor for lending. Ranking Democrat Richard Neal called the bills reasonable but warned that some provisions stray from established tax principles. Industry witnesses pushed back on extending wash-sale rules to digital assets, citing heavy compliance burdens with limited enforcement benefit.

Prediction-market operator Kalshi rolled out an immediate market-integrity package requiring traders to disclose their employers before accessing high-risk contracts. The measures target markets flagged for elevated insider-trading or manipulation risk, including contracts pegged to corporate performance, national security, and major geopolitical flashpoints. The exchange said it opened more than 150 investigations this year, blocked over 100 potential insider trades, and referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement. A new risk-scoring framework weighs six factors when vetting listings, and lower-importance markets carrying high manipulation risk may be rejected entirely. The move follows a wave of congressional probes and criminal charges that have engulfed the sector.

The European Commission proposed banning transactions on 11 crypto platforms as part of its 21st sanctions package against Russia. The bloc's foreign-policy chief said the measures would also tighten restrictions on crypto-asset services to certain third countries and add fresh designations targeting banks, weapons makers, oil traders, and refineries. The Commission declined to name the 11 platforms publicly. The package extends sanctions beyond Russian banks and energy revenue toward firms accused of helping Moscow evade restrictions over its war in Ukraine. It follows the United Kingdom's May action against the operator behind exchange HTX over alleged Russia-linked financial support, a case that blockchain researchers flagged for its broad tainting effects.

Japan's three largest banks — MUFG Bank, Mizuho Bank, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation — established a council to jointly issue a stablecoin by March 2027. According to the banks' official statement, the token will be issued under a trust agreement, with the three lenders serving as joint settlors and a trust bank acting as trustee. The initiative builds on a late-2025 pilot that examined whether multiple banks can legally co-issue a fiat-pegged token, and it operates under the Financial Services Agency's Payment Innovation Project. Japan's 2023 Payment Services Act amendments created the licensing regime that has already enabled yen-pegged tokens such as JPYC and the institution-focused JPYSC.

At Istanbul's flagship industry summit, the conversation shifted decisively toward institutional infrastructure rather than retail speculation. Türkiye runs the largest crypto market in the Middle East and North Africa, with close to 200 billion dollars in annual on-chain activity by some estimates, roughly four times the UAE. Panels centered on custody, regulatory compliance, stablecoin utility, and tokenization, with speakers naming strict custodian regulation, full custodial insurance, and Big Four audits as non-negotiables for traditional finance. Turkish rules, built on 2024 amendments to Capital Markets Law, will mandate a separation between trading platforms and custody institutions — a structural departure from Europe's combined MiCA model.

Across these developments a single arc emerges: regulators and institutions are racing to build durable rails around digital assets even as market sentiment stays grim. COINOTAG's aggregate data captures the disconnect — our Fear and Greed Index sits at 9 out of 100, deep in Extreme Fear, while Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 70.4 percent and total crypto market capitalization rests near 1.76 trillion dollars. That elevated dominance signals capital rotating out of altcoins and toward Bitcoin as risk appetite contracts, a hallmark of a defensive bear market. The week's regulatory clarity — from CFTC frameworks to Japanese bank-issued stablecoins — lays infrastructure whose payoff may only register once fear yields to renewed conviction.