China Treasuries Hit 18-Year Low, Japan Pension Adds Crypto, Kalshi Nears $22B IPO

Crypto News

A regional Japanese corporate pension fund based in Okayama plans to direct 1% of its assets into crypto during the 2026 fiscal year, in one of the first publicly disclosed digital-asset allocations by a Japanese company scheme. The fund manages roughly ¥21.3 billion (about $136 million) for some 1,200 small businesses and over 20,000 members, making the stake worth around $1.36 million. Officials framed the move as a hedge against yen depreciation and a weakening dollar, trimming yen exposure from 80% to 70%. Exposure will come through passive multi-asset funds rather than direct purchases, arriving just as Japan's June 11 securities-law amendment opens a regulatory path toward domestic crypto ETFs.

China's holdings of US Treasuries fell to $651.1 billion in April, the lowest level since September 2008, according to official Treasury data. It marked a third consecutive month of net selling, shaving $43.3 billion from Beijing's position even as total foreign ownership climbed to $9.35 trillion, the second-highest on record. Japan remained the dominant holder at $1.21 trillion, with the United Kingdom at $937.5 billion, while Canada cut $42 billion to $397.1 billion. The drawdown unfolded amid Middle East conflict and questions over Federal Reserve independence, after new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady against Trump's push toward 1%.

Prediction-market operator Kalshi has opened early, informal talks with several banks about a potential public listing, though no S-1 has been filed and any debut likely sits in late 2027 or 2028. The exchange's annualized revenue run-rate has crossed $2 billion, roughly tripling since November 2025, while May notional volume hit a record near $17 billion on NBA playoff and World Cup contracts. Institutional volume surged 800% over six months. A $1 billion round led by Coatue in May lifted Kalshi's valuation to $22 billion, double its $11 billion mark in December, cementing its status as the first CFTC-regulated event-contract venue eyeing Wall Street.

Overnight negotiations between US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland produced progress on two fronts, with Tehran's foreign ministry citing advances on frozen assets and a safe-passage mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly $6 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatar are expected to return under any deal, while a reported 60-day window would waive transit fees through the strait, a chokepoint for nearly a quarter of seaborne oil. US Vice President Vance led the American team, and diplomats withdrew as technical staff continued on nuclear and sanctions questions. Easing geopolitical risk could help stabilize oil and, by extension, risk assets including Bitcoin.

Elon Musk used a June 20 post to argue Washington should send Treasury payments directly to citizens rather than take government equity stakes in AI companies, predicting that AI- and robotics-driven abundance will produce deflation rather than inflation. The stance rejects a proposal from Senator Bernie Sanders that would levy a one-time 50% equity transfer tax on large AI firms to seed a sovereign wealth fund. Musk's comments landed days after SpaceX completed an IPO at $135 per share, pushing his net worth past $1 trillion and making him, by several wealth trackers, the first person to cross that threshold.

Intel's new chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, detailed the company's role in Musk's Terafab chip venture on a podcast, calling Musk one of the finest entrepreneurs of the century and warning that AI chip capacity now lags demand on scale, efficiency and power draw. Under the arrangement, Musk builds the fabrication plant while Intel supplies advanced 14A process technology and manufacturing support. Sited at the Giga Texas campus in Austin, the project carries a budget above $3 billion and targets annual output of 200 billion chips, alongside SpaceX compute needs and Tesla's AI training arrays. Tan described it as a jointly engineered effort rather than a solo bet.

Taken together, these moves trace a single arc: capital is repositioning around artificial intelligence while edging away from dollar exposure. From a Japanese pension hedging the yen to Beijing trimming Treasuries, the search for non-correlated stores of value is widening — a backdrop that historically favors digital assets. Yet COINOTAG's own aggregate data tempers the optimism. Our Fear & Greed Index sits at 20, deep in Extreme Fear, Bitcoin dominance stands at 70.1%, and total crypto market capitalization holds near $1.85 trillion, signaling defensive rotation into Bitcoin over altcoins. With stablecoin liquidity and on-chain wallet activity subdued, conviction stays thin until macro clarity returns.