Bitcoin Falls to 4-Month Low, But Analysts Eye a Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to roughly $61,500 in early Asian trading hours. This marked its lowest level since early February. Today’s sell-off wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market in 24 hours. 

The decline extended a slide that has erased 20% Bitcoin’s value over the past month. Yet several analysts argue the latest drop may mark the late stages of the downturn rather than its start.

Bitcoin Holders Capitulate as Selling Accelerates

Bitcoin has fallen sharply since mid-May. At the same time, sustained outflows from spot exchange-traded funds have stripped out a key source of institutional demand.

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Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said long-term holders have now joined the sell-off. These holders stayed largely inactive from February to April. However, they sold about $2.4 billion in Bitcoin, Engel noted.

He also flagged that 26% of Bitcoin sold over the past 30 days came from investors who bought at prices above $90,000. Engel argues this top-buyer capitulation typically appears late in bear markets. That framing casts the current pain as a sign of exhaustion rather than a fresh leg down.

“Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late-cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that BTC’s bear market is in late stages,” he noted.

Why Some See a Bitcoin Bottom Forming

Meanwhile, Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets, said the market is showing signals that have historically accompanied major lows, including an oversold weekly relative strength index. He pointed out to prior bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

“To be clear, I’m not suggesting that an oversold RSI reading magically identifies the exact bottom candle. Markets don’t work that way. Bottoms are processes, not events.What it does suggest is that Bitcoin has entered the same momentum regime that has historically been present whenever a major cycle low was forming,” he said.

The timing element reinforces the case. The previous three bottoms landed roughly 777, 889, and 924 days after their corresponding halving events.

Bitcoin is now about 770 days past the April 2024 halving, squarely inside the historical stretch when earlier cycles tended to run out of downside steam.

“No single metric matters in isolation. RSI alone isn’t enough. Timing alone isn’t enough. But when multiple independent signals begin pointing in the same direction, it’s worth paying attention,” Melker added.

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson took a longer view, suggesting Bitcoin could gain strong momentum from 2027 onward. 

While the current weakness has rattled the market, the analysts’ outlook paints a more positive picture. Whether a recovery follows or Bitcoin slides further should become clearer in the sessions ahead.