Bitcoin traded under $80,000 Friday after a five-day spot ETF inflow streak that anchored its recovery from February lows snapped, with signs of little retail participation amid macro uncertainty and global conflicts.
April's closely watched Employment Situation report surpassed expectations, with job creation remaining solid. Although it helped to clarify the macro picture, it did little to resolve other headline risks bearing down on price.
Spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded $277 million in net outflows on Thursday in the first negative session after five consecutive days of inflows totaling $1.69 billion, per SoSoValue data. Similarly, all 10 spot ether (ETH) ETFs posted $104 million in outflows the same day, with none of the funds recording net inflows.
Expand Chart
The reversal in flows coincided with renewed doubt over the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. Prediction markets are pricing a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15.
Iranian officials accused Washington of violating agreed terms overnight, and reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude higher in early Friday trading, partially unwinding the 8% collapse in Brent oil that had lifted risk assets through midweek.
However, the broader macro repricing has not unwound with oil.
Perpetual swap markets are pricing more than a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by April 2027, with early easing pushed out to 2028 — a hawkish shift that held even as yield on 10-year Treasury bills pulled back to approximately 4.34% on Thursday, according to QCP's weekly report.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April — nearly double the consensus forecast of 62,000 — while March's figure was revised upward to 185,000. Unemployment held at 4.3%.
While the strong data beat supports the near-term risk-on, bullish market read, the Fed's room to cut rates remains constrained by persistent energy-driven inflation rather than the labor market picture.
The market is now treating energy-driven inflation as a structural constraint, not a pass-through.
Crypto constraints
Also, bitcoin's rally's internal composition adds its own ceiling.
Bitcoin's break above $81,000 has been driven primarily by institutional spot buying and short liquidations rather than retail participation, with funding rates remaining unusually soft throughout the move, according to Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen.
Smart money positioning on HyperLiquid heading into payrolls reflected that caution, with net BTC buying of just $5.3 million over 24 hours. It signaled "modest flows rather than a conviction build," Kennis wrote.
Without a pickup in retail, pullbacks toward the $75,000-$78,000 support zone remain possible, Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said.
Notably, the CLARITY crypto market structure bill cleared its main procedural hurdle for Senate markup this week, and Morgan Stanley's E-Trade rolled out crypto trading at 50 basis points, bringing digital assets into mainstream brokerage distribution. Neither moved the tape this week.
According to The Block's price page, BTC and ETH changed hands for $79,700 and $2,270, respectively, after the payrolls report.
Expand Chart