Bitcoin is trading above $81,000 Monday as geopolitical uncertainty, not fundamentals, drives market direction, with Iran rejecting the Trump administration's peace framework and Brent crude surging past $104 in early trading.
Bitcoin briefly cleared $82,000 earlier in the session, sustaining a monthly gain of more than 11%, The Block previously reported.
The move came even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and the Iran ceasefire holds by a thread.
Profit taking
Last week's advance into the $80,000 region was powered by a convergence of tailwinds, including strong exchange-traded fund inflows, accumulation expectations among digital asset treasury companies, and optimism surrounding a Clarity Act stablecoin compromise, according to Laser Digital's derivatives trading desk.
However, the bid stalled midweek as investors took profits. Many had pre-positioned for an expected heavy Strategy bid that week. When that expectation went unmet, take-profit flows followed.
Conflicting signals from some corporate bitcoin (BTC) holders — whether slowing or pausing purchases — compounded the pressure, Laser Digital wrote.
CryptoQuant also flagged the risk of deepening profit-taking last week amid what it characterized as a bear market rally.
Ethereum (ETH) absorbed the heaviest selling. A whale carrying roughly $1 billion each in bitcoin and ether sold heavily into ETH throughout the week, driving the token's underperformance against bitcoin on the cross, Laser Digital wrote.
The remaining ETH position moved to exchanges over the weekend without triggering an immediate sell-off. ETH was last trading around $2,335, up 4.5% over the past month compared to bitcoin's double-digit gain, per The Block's prices page.
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Market reaction
Amid the uncertainty, analysts say markets are now digesting macro news after a quiet weekend.
"Markets spent the whole weekend frozen like a deer in headlights as the rhetoric around a potential U.S.-Iran deal kept swinging from one extreme to another," said Nic Puckrin, Coin Bureau founder and former Goldman Sachs quantitative strategist.
"Now, they're snapping out of this paralysis as traders begin to react to Trump's rejection of Iran's response," he added.
Puckrin said that bitcoin and oil futures functioned as some of the clearest real-time gauges of geopolitical risk through weekend sessions. Bitcoin holding steady above $80,000 and Brent hovering near $100 was consistent with investors pricing in a diplomatic resolution over escalation, he argued. That calculus reversed Monday morning as Brent cleared $104 and hedging against Hormuz supply disruptions reasserted itself.
Macro and flows
The macro backdrop also remains broadly supportive.
April Non-Farm Payrolls showed 115,000 jobs added, nearly twice market expectations, with unemployment holding steady, reducing near-term stagflation risk, Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, noted
Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing on Thursday and Friday, with discussions expected to cover trade, national security, rare earth supply chains, and the Middle East conflict, according to QCP Capital's latest note.
The meeting follows a U.S. trade court ruling last week that found Trump's 10% global tariffs unlawful, adding fresh stakes to any tariff signal out of Beijing.
April CPI is due Tuesday, followed by PPI and the OPEC monthly report on Wednesday, and retail sales alongside the Clarity Act session on Thursday.
Crypto-specific flows reinforced the constructive read. Digital asset investment products drew $857.9 million last week in a sixth consecutive positive week, led by bitcoin, according to CoinShares.
Bitcoin treasury giant Strategy (MSTR) could also supply a fresh demand catalyst. The company's STRC preferred stock instrument began trading near par on Friday, opening the potential for fresh bitcoin purchases through a capital raise this week, Laser Digital wrote. Saylor also said that Strategy would buy "10 to 20" bitcoin for every one it sells.
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In options markets, volatility was bid early last week as bitcoin broke above $80,000 before retracing in a measured fashion.
The subsequent spot-down, vol-down dynamic reinforced Laser Digital's preference for BTC risk reversals — long calls over short puts — with downside skew still in negative territory.
"As the negotiations dominate newsflow, markets are reacting to these swings more than fundamentals," Puckrin added. "That means there's a lack of conviction in the market, and this typically makes for an extremely fragile trading environment, where every headline can sharply reverse positioning."
QCP Capital's note on Monday, which cast the market moment as "crypto at the crossroads," put $84,000 as bitcoin's next key resistance level, with crypto volatility drifting near year-to-date lows.