Bitcoin is gaining over gold as the debasement trade after the Iran conflict, as bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to attract inflows while gold ETFs struggle to recover outflows, JPMorgan analysts said.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for a third straight month in May, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report. Gold ETFs, meanwhile, are still struggling to recover the outflows they saw in March when the Iran conflict erupted, the analysts noted.
This suggests retail investors are choosing bitcoin (BTC) over gold as a debasement trade since the start of the conflict, the analysts said, noting "the debasement trade rotates from gold to bitcoin." The debasement trade refers to investors buying assets like gold or bitcoin to protect against weakening fiat currencies, especially during geopolitical tensions or inflation concerns.
Earlier in March, the analysts also noted a sharp difference in flows between bitcoin and gold ETFs after the Iran conflict began.
Demand is not limited to retail
Bitcoin buying has not been limited to retail investors through ETFs, the analysts said. JPMorgan's positioning proxies based on CME bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures have also been making new highs, suggesting institutional investors have increased exposure as well.
The analysts also said momentum signals for bitcoin and gold, used as proxies for positioning by momentum traders such as commodity trading advisors, have rebounded for bitcoin since the start of the Iran conflict.
Investors' bitcoin buying is also happening indirectly through Michael Saylor's Strategy, whose ownership is almost equally split between retail and institutional investors, the analysts noted.
Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of bitcoin globally and has been accumulating bitcoin at a faster pace this year. If the current pace continues, its bitcoin buying could reach around $30 billion this year, according to the analysts.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,120, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.