Robinhood primed for rebound after shares tank 8% in Q1 miss, Bernstein says

Robinhood is primed to rebound from a bruising first-quarter where crypto-driven revenue plunged 47%, according to research and brokerage firm Bernstein.

On Wednesday, Bernstein reaffirmed its “outperform” rating on Robinhood and kept a $130 share price target, arguing the stock will nearly double after bottoming — even after a messy Q1 call sent HOOD shares tumbling 8%.

“The top-line weakness was driven by crypto weakness,” analyst Gautam Chhugani and his three Bernstein colleagues said in a note shared with DL News.

Robinhood’s lacklustre performance in crypto comes amid a broader industry downturn that has vapourised $1.5 trillion in value despite the S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Bitcoin is still trading 40% below its peak while many other tokens are down over 75% or more.

But Bernstein says investors are looking in the rear-view mirror, despite shares falling about 8% in post-market afterhours trading after the platform missed revenue and earnings targets.

“Crypto has stabilised in April and HOOD’s own prediction markets exchange — Rothera — is expected to go live mid 2026,” the analysts stressed.

The company has repurchased more than $300 million of stock so far this year, and its board refreshed buyback authorisation to $1.5 billion.

Chief executive Vlad Tenev has repeatedly said he wants to move the narrative away from Bitcoin price cycles and toward infrastructure and long-term financial services.

Mixed Q1

On Tuesday, Robinhood reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.39, missing estimates by nearly 10%.

Overall revenue came in 7% below expectations at about $1.1 billion, while adjusted EBITDA — the key metric for Wall Street — missed by 9% at $534 million.

Yet, the broader business held up.

Total revenue grew 15% compared with a year ago. Transaction-based revenue climbed to $623 million, lifted by a record surge in prediction markets trading.

Robinhood users traded 8.8 billion event contracts in the quarter, pushing “other transaction revenue” up 320% year-on-year to $147 million.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Banking has grown fivefold since the last earnings report, with over $2 billion in net deposits and a 40% direct deposit attach rate. The Gold credit card has surpassed 800,000 users, with annualised purchase volume reaching $15 billion.

Bernstein is forecasting full-year 2026 earnings per share of $2.65, 23% ahead of consensus estimates.

The upside, it says, is driven by a recovery in crypto and a breakout year for prediction markets.

At the same time, the company is leaning into artificial intelligence tools to improve product features and internal efficiency. Management says more than 90% of employees now use AI tooling.

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at [email protected]