Could Bitcoin Experience Further Declines Before Price Recovery?

• An analyst revealed that short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss in a CryptoQuant post. The relevant indicator here is referred to as the “Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).”
• This term can only be defined for a portion of the market. In the current context of the discussion, short-term holders (STH) are the ones of interest. These investors have been holding their coins for less than 155 days.
• With the recent pullback, this support level has been breached as short-term holders are now selling their coins at a loss. Typically, when the indicator falls below this level, it doesn’t quickly recover, as the line starts to act as resistance.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” on Bitcoin may indicate an important detail for the direction of the price; Could BTC price decline further?

Could There Be More Declines in Bitcoin Price?

Patterns in an on-chain metric suggest that Bitcoin could experience further declines before recovering. An analyst pointed out in a CryptoQuant post that short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss. The relevant indicator is called the “Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR),” which tells us whether Bitcoin holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss.

When this indicator’s value is greater than 1, it means that on average, holders in the market are moving their coins at a profit. Conversely, values below this threshold imply that losses dominate the sector.

SOPR of exactly 1 indicates that the market is currently balanced between buyers and sellers since realized profits offset losses.

This term can only be defined for a portion of the market. In the current context of the discussion, short-term holders (STH) are the ones of interest. These investors have been holding their coins for less than 155 days. A chart showing the 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin SOPR trend over the last few years:

As seen in the chart above, the 30-day MA of Bitcoin STH SOPR was above 1 for most of 2023, but it dropped below this level after the recent decline in the asset’s price.

Why is this level so important?

Historically, this indicator level has served as a support line for the cryptocurrency and has often found recoveries. For example, Bitcoin found bottoms at this signal during both the March and June declines.

However, with the recent pullback, this support level has been breached as short-term holders are now selling their coins at a loss. Typically, when the indicator falls below this level, it doesn’t quickly recover, as the line starts to act as resistance.

Bitcoin STH SOPR has historically managed to find recoveries in the quantity’s chart-highlighted green box. The indicator is still well above this bottom region.

If the price of BTC only finds recovery when the indicator falls into this zone, there could be further declines in store for the asset, potentially pushing short-term holders to capitulate more deeply.