Ethereum Faces Potential Pullback Despite Bullish Long-Term Trend and ETF Approval

• Amidst the recent rally, Ethereum showcases metrics raising cautious sentiments among traders.
• Despite a bullish higher timeframe outlook, there is anticipation of a potential 2%-7% dip in the next fortnight.
• “As investors reassess market conditions, Ethereum’s short-term trajectory remains under scrutiny,” said a leading analyst.

Ethereum’s recent surge in value suggests bullish momentum, but underlying metrics indicate traders should remain cautious.

Ethereum Faces Volatile Market Activity

In a remarkable feat, Ethereum [ETH] surpassed its significant resistance point at $3.1k on May 20 after several attempts, following the announcement of the spot Ethereum ETF’s approval, which was officially confirmed on May 23. This breakthrough, however, was followed by a decline in trading volume akin to earlier levels seen in May. Additionally, the NFT marketplace experienced a substantial drop in activity, coupled with dwindling interest from U.S.-based investors.

Coinbase Premium at Yearly Lows Signals Market Concerns

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, measuring the percentage difference between Coinbase’s ETH/USD and Binance’s ETH/USDT pairs, serves as a barometer for investor sentiment within the United States, given their accessibility to Coinbase over Binance. This index offers critical insights into market behavior across different regions.

In August 2023, the Premium Index plunged to -0.16, which was swiftly followed by Ethereum’s price falling from $1.8k to $1.6k. Although this index doesn’t guarantee future price movements, a decline is a significant indicator of weakening market demand. On May 29, the index dropped to -0.141, reflecting reduced demand even as Ethereum’s price hovered above $3.7k.

Critical Indicators Suggest Possible Ethereum Price Corrections

The analysis from Hyblock’s liquidation data reveals that the cumulative liquidation levels delta remains negative, implying an oversupply of short positions over longs. Should a short squeeze occur, prices might surge to trigger the liquidation of many short positions. An analogous situation was observed on May 31, where clustered long liquidations at $3.7k were impacted, indicating a possible retracement before any substantial price increase.

The technical analysis from TradingView illustrates that the demand zone between $3540 and $3640, identified in March, remains relevant amid the current bullish market structure. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) failing to surpass a lower high from April denotes inconsistent demand, supporting the likelihood of Ethereum’s price correction towards $3.6k.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while Ethereum presents an upward trajectory with its current bullish momentum, caution is advised given the mixed signals from various market indicators and metrics. The potential for a short-term price drop cannot be overlooked, prompting traders and investors to remain vigilant as they navigate this volatile landscape. As always, evaluating both technical and fundamental factors will be crucial for informed decision-making moving forward.