Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation, Binance Exits Greece, Crypto PACs Win Three US Primaries

Crypto News

Prediction-market operator Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh capital at a valuation near $40 billion, almost double the $22 billion it commanded in its last round, with a deal potentially closing in the third quarter. The jump would widen Kalshi’s lead over rival Polymarket, which was last reported seeking funding at $15 billion. The federally regulated US exchange counts Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Morgan Stanley among its backers. Chief executive Tarek Mansour confirmed the company is weighing an eventual public listing, though he ruled out any initial public offering before 2027 as Kalshi and Polymarket consolidate their grip on the sector.

Deutsche Bank cut its gold forecasts and warned the metal could slide toward $3,800 an ounce if the Federal Reserve delivers three to four rate hikes. The bank now sees gold at roughly $4,300 in the third quarter, more than 22% below its prior estimate, and $4,800 by year-end. Spot gold traded near $4,088 on Wednesday, down about 1% on the day and more than 21% off its January record. After surging to an all-time high earlier this year, bullion reversed as resilient US data and a hawkish policy repricing lifted real yields, eroding demand for the non-yielding asset.

Binance formally withdrew its Markets in Crypto-Assets license application in Greece and will instead pursue authorization through another, as-yet-unnamed EU member state. The reversal lands barely a week before the July 1 MiCA deadline, after which unlicensed platforms must wind down services across the 27-nation bloc. The exchange said its talks with the Hellenic Capital Market Commission produced no timely response, and that user funds remain safe and secure while affected clients are contacted directly. The episode underscores how strictly the EU now polices exchanges, stablecoin issuers and even algorithmic stablecoins under the unified framework.

A new long-form analysis projects that by 2036 sovereign nations, not publicly traded firms, will dominate Bitcoin mining. The thesis holds that compressing margins and the explosive buildout of artificial-intelligence and high-performance-compute data centers priced public miners out of cheap grid power, pushing many to pivot toward AI hosting. Governments, meanwhile, have begun treating surplus off-peak electricity as a national asset, monetizing stranded power by mining Bitcoin rather than building costly cross-border transmission. The emerging model mirrors mineral-extraction royalties, with states forming joint ventures that hand them a fixed percentage of mining profits.

Crypto-aligned political action committees notched wins across three US state primaries on Tuesday, backing candidates with more than $8 million in advertising. Groups including Fairshake, funded largely by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, supported victors in Utah, Maryland and New York. Democrat Ritchie Torres took New York’s 15th district with 71.9%, Republican Blake Moore won Utah’s 2nd with 57.5%, and Fairshake affiliate Protect Progress spent $5.5 million to lift Maryland’s Adrian Boafo to a 32% win. Fairshake reported $150 million cash on hand in June, signaling sustained spending ahead of upcoming Colorado and Arizona contests.

The US 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.85% on Wednesday, its lowest since April 15, after President Donald Trump signaled easing tensions with Iran over Strait of Hormuz shipping. Falling oil prices followed, with West Texas Intermediate slipping toward $70 a barrel and Brent crude near $74, both at multi-month lows. Cheaper energy eased near-term inflation fears and drew buyers into long-dated debt. The move reverses much of a spring selloff that drove the 30-year above 5.19% in May, even as a hawkish Fed projecting a 3.8% year-end rate clouds the longer-term outlook.

Taken together, these threads trace a single arc: capital and policy are repricing risk in real time as a hawkish Fed reshapes every corner of the market. COINOTAG’s proprietary aggregate data frames the caution clearly — the Fear and Greed Index sits at 17, deep in Extreme Fear, while Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 70.3%, signaling that capital is concentrating in Bitcoin and fleeing the broader altcoin complex. With total crypto market capitalization near $1.71 trillion, the same forces pressuring gold and bond yields are draining speculative appetite, and even automated trading systems are skewing defensive as regulatory and macro uncertainty compound across both digital assets and traditional markets.