- Bitcoin’s price is trading around $27,410 before the opening of US markets on the last day of the week.
- Charles Edwards recently observed significant growth in long-term Bitcoin holders, noting that this growth can only be compared to 2016.
- The current fear and greed index stands at 50, which is neutral. However, analysts and traders are confident that a new cycle beginning in 2025 will see a peak in the coming year.
Examining the HODL Trend in Bitcoin, the founder of Capriole Fund discovered a similarity with 2017; what does this exactly mean?
Similarity in Bitcoin Holder Growth
Bitcoin’s price is trading around $27,410 before the opening of US markets on the last day of the week. Today, the BTC price reached $27,801, but it started its downward movement with the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data in the US, which exceeded expectations two-fold. Additionally, on October 6, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, observed “HODL waves” in long-term Bitcoin holders.
He stated that the recent significant growth in long-term Bitcoin holders can only be compared to 2016. He said that this growth will have significant consequences in 2024, adding that it wasn’t seen in the last bull cycle, implying that the next one could be even bigger.
“This is making this cycle look much more like 2017, where there was a 10x increase in price over the year, like 2020’s 10x increase.”
In 2017, the bull market led to a 1,900% increase in BTC prices that year. In comparison, gains in the 2020-2021 bull market were approximately 600%.
Bitcoin Sentiment Strengthening
Despite the current market outlook being largely bearish, most investors seem to share a similar sentiment. The current fear and greed index stands at 50, indicating neutrality. However, analysts and traders are confident that a new cycle beginning in 2025 will see a peak.
On October 5, crypto analyst “hoeem” stated, “Bitcoin won’t need much to turn bullish.” He added that there are several positive factors that could lead to this and accelerate it. These include the four-year cycle theory, with the next cycle expected in 2024. The block reward halving, inherently associated with this, is set for April and May next year.
Another potential positive impact is the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. This would mean that issuers would need to buy BTC directly, increasing buying pressure and driving up prices. The potential impact of a supply shock has also been observed by numerous crypto traders and investors.
Another driving force is the victories of major companies like Ripple, Coinbase, and Grayscale against the Securities and Exchange Commission. Courts have so far shown leniency towards them, and an outright win would be a significant gain for the crypto industry.
