- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for November today.
- Wall Street anticipates a moderation in U.S. CPI inflation, but some resistance is expected in core CPI inflation.
- Moderating CPI inflation could provide an opportunity for the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the coming months.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release inflation reports for November today: How might Bitcoin be affected?
U.S. Inflation Data to Be Revealed Today
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for November today. The market expects the CPI inflation to drop to the lowest in the past five months at 3.1%. If the inflation data comes in lower than expected, the crypto market may recover from recent sell-offs. The annual inflation rate for October was recorded at 3.2%, slowing down from 3.7% the previous month.
Wall Street predicts a further moderation in U.S. CPI inflation, but some resistance is expected in core CPI inflation; the annual core rate is expected to remain steady at 4%, with the monthly rate increasing from 0.2% to 0.3%.
Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Citadel, Barclays, Bank of America, RBC, and Citi expect a consensus of 3.1% for the CPI. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Visa, BMO, and Wells Fargo predict a 3% CPI for November. UBS and CIBS, on the other hand, expect the November CPI to remain steady at 3.2%.
Moderating CPI inflation could provide an opportunity for the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the coming months. CME FedWatch indicates a 98.4% probability of announcing a pause at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped below 104, currently moving around 103.75, which could bring about a recovery in BTC prices.
Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Stuart Paul stated, ‘Short-term inflation expectations have sharply declined in recent months due to the drop in energy prices. This provides more room for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts as risks to activity and inflation risks balance out.’
Bitcoin and Other Crypto Price Movement Post-CPI
COINOTAG cautioned this week, considering factors including the Bitcoin CME Gap, about a potential correction in the crypto market. Analysts suggest an upward continuation in BTC price is expected, and a pullback is needed to confirm progress towards $50k and potentially $60k.
Bitcoin’s open positions (OI) on CME and Binance are increasing again, indicating a potential recovery. However, traders are expected to wait for the Fed interest rate decision for further guidance. The BTC price is currently trading at $41,650, experiencing a drop of over 1% in the last 24 hours as traders await the CPI data. The 24-hour low and high values are $40,234 and $42,470, respectively. Additionally, the trading volume has increased by more than 20% in the last 24 hours, indicating interest among traders.
