EUR/USD Gains 1% Amid Dollar Weakness, Euro Lags Behind G10 Peers

• The EUR/USD pair has seen an increase of approximately 1% this week, largely due to a weakening dollar.
• Despite this, the euro continues to trail behind other pro-cyclical G10 currencies, with the exception of the CAD which is sensitive to US data.
• The euro’s low three-month correlation with two-year USD swap rates has previously shielded it from significant upward adjustments in Federal Reserve expectations.

The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a rise amid a weakening dollar, but the euro continues to lag behind other G10 currencies. This article delves into the factors influencing these currency movements.

Resistance at 1.0900 Level

The 1.0900 level is not expected to pose strong resistance if US economic data, such as today’s jobless claims, puts further pressure on the dollar. However, a rise to the 1.1000 mark seems unlikely at this point due to persistent inflation in the US. The European Central Bank is not expected to exert significant pressure on the euro, with a June rate cut fully priced in and almost certain.

Impact of Eurozone Data

Recent data from the eurozone suggests that ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely emphasize data-dependency over dovish guidance. Today’s eurozone calendar features final April CPI figures and speeches from several ECB representatives. It is unlikely that policy comments will significantly alter the firmly set ECB pricing.

Norwegian Currency Strength

Elsewhere in Europe, Norway reported 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth for the first quarter this morning, aligning with expectations. The Norwegian currency has started the week strongly alongside its peer SEK, appearing relatively stronger due to the Riksbank’s recent rate cut and the potential for further easing.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair has seen a rise this week, largely driven by a weakening dollar. However, the euro continues to lag behind other G10 currencies. While the 1.0900 level is not expected to pose strong resistance, a rise to the 1.1000 mark seems unlikely due to persistent US inflation. Despite a fully priced in and almost certain June rate cut, the European Central Bank is not expected to exert significant pressure on the euro.