- Bitcoin is already entering the latter part of its S-curve adoption cycle, leading to less volatility for the asset than old investors may be used to, according to Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer.
- During an interview published on Tuesday, the macro analyst explained how he believes Bitcoin will size up next to gold, and where the asset belongs within a traditional 60/40 portfolio.
- “It’s an exponential version of gold,” said Timmer, likening Bitcoin to other “hard assets” that perform well when interest rates are low, or during periods of fiscal dominance.
Bitcoin’s adoption curve is maturing, and Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro discusses its evolving role, positioning it alongside traditional assets like gold.
Bitcoin’s Place Among Traditional Assets
Timmer acknowledged that the recent approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January has helped “democratize” the asset, putting it “on the menu” for investors regardless of their technical sophistication.
This allows investors to analyze Bitcoin right alongside stocks, bonds, and ETFs, when determining how to construct their portfolio, and when looking to an investment to fulfill a particular need.
“It’s an exponential version of gold,” said Timmer, likening Bitcoin to other “hard assets” that perform well when interest rates are low, or during periods of fiscal dominance.
However, while Bitcoin may appreciate against those other assets and possibly eat into their markets, Timmer says there will be a point of “mean reversion” where investors return to buying them for their cheap relative valuations.
“If gold is at $2000 and Bitcoin is at $1 million, at some point investors are gonna say… ‘these other asset classes are really becoming cheap while this side is becoming expensive.’”
In terms of Bitcoin’s place within a portfolio, Timmer said that a 2% allocation would “make an impact” for buyers given that the asset’s risk-adjusted returns are “in another universe.”
“It’s enough to matter just because of the return profile that we’ve seen, but not so much that it’s going to make you wanna sell everything when it goes against you,” he said.
Bitcoin’s Maturity And Decreasing Volatility
While acknowledging that Bitcoin is currently a “boom and bust” asset, Timmer said he predicts Bitcoin will “eventually mature into something less than that,” much like gold. This could be a boon for many corporations that incentivizes them to buy more, he argued, as they can use BTC in lieu of cash that they rely upon to have stable short-term value.
“Part of growing up means transcending that dynamic,” Timmer said. “As adults, we don’t behave the same way as we did when we were teenagers… less volatility means fewer crashes but fewer moons as well, and I think that’s a good thing.”
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s maturing adoption cycle suggests it will evolve into a less volatile asset akin to gold. As the asset becomes increasingly critical within traditional investment portfolios, a modest allocation can significantly impact due to its risk-adjusted returns. Although Bitcoin’s role will continue to develop, its stabilization could attract more institutional adoption, further solidifying its place in the financial industry.
