-
Bitcoin’s market is showing signs of maturation, with indicators suggesting a potential euphoria phase on the horizon.
-
The price growth of Bitcoin may be slowing, but institutional interest and reduced sell-side pressure set the stage for a brighter market future.
-
“The structural parallels to the 2015-2018 market cycle suggest that significant growth may soon be on the cards,” a source from COINOTAG remarked.
Bitcoin’s market maturity hints at a future euphoria phase, driven by institutional interest and diminished sell-side pressure.
Similarities to the 2015-2018 Cycle
One notable trend is the diminishing rate of price appreciation with each cycle. As Bitcoin [BTC] has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar asset, the capital required to drive further growth has naturally risen, slowing the rate of price gains. Recent analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s current market structure closely resembles the previous bull run, suggesting an exciting transition phase for investors.
Source: Glassnode
Additionally, drawdowns in the current cycle have been relatively shallow, typically ranging between 10.1% and 23.6%, mirroring the patterns observed in the 2015-2017 cycle. These pullbacks reflect a steady and sustained demand for Bitcoin, supported by rising institutional interest and its growing acceptance as a macro asset.
Source: Glassnode
As the market potentially transitions into a euphoric phase, akin to previous cycles, the current trajectory of Bitcoin indicates the likelihood of another period of accelerated growth soon.
Realized Cap – A Sign of a Maturing Market?
The hike in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap provides critical insights into the market’s ongoing evolution. During the 2011-2015 cycle, realized capital surged by approximately 122x, fueled by Bitcoin’s early exponential adoption. However, as the market matured, growth ratios have steadily declined in subsequent cycles, signifying Bitcoin’s shift to a more capital-intensive and structurally mature market.
Source: Glassnode
In the current cycle, Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x so far, which is significantly below the 5.7x peak of the previous cycle. This growth reflects patterns observed in the 2015-2018 cycle, with sharp hikes expected as the market enters its euphoric phase. Although Bitcoin’s size today demands a considerably larger capital influx to achieve similar growth, the ongoing increases in realized capital may signal opportunities for market expansion.
Closer Look at Sell-Side Pressure and Investor Behavior
Tracking the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio is vital for assessing whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase. A rising ratio indicates that more coins are held long-term, showcasing HODLing behavior dominance. Conversely, a decline in this ratio signifies that long-term holders are actively selling.
Source: Glassnode
In the ongoing 2023–2025 cycle, we have witnessed two prominent waves of distribution, reminiscent of those in early 2021 and late 2017. Historically, these distribution phases have often been followed by price rallies, indicating that decreased sell-side pressure can sustain bullish momentum—at least until demand exhaustion sets in.
Bull Market and Euphoria Phase
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s potential transition into the euphoria phase may be influenced by shifts within market structure, rather than simply due to a supply shock. Since July 2024, exchange balances have decreased from 3.1M BTC to 2.7M BTC. This change could be attributed to a combination of individual withdrawals and, more significantly, coins being transferred into institutional custodial wallets—a trend largely driven by Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
Source: Glassnode
Since the SEC approved Spot ETFs in January 2024, there has been a surge in demand, resulting in Bitcoin migrating into custodial wallets, notably those of Coinbase. While exchange balances have experienced a decline, the actual supply available for trading may not be as restricted, indicating a significant structural transformation in the market that could affect future price dynamics.
Conclusion
In summary, the current state of the Bitcoin market suggests a transition towards a maturing phase, characterized by reduced sell-side pressure and rising institutional involvement. As we draw parallels with previous cycles, it is evident that the future may hold significant opportunities for growth and expansion. Keeping a close eye on these indicators will be vital for investors seeking to navigate this evolving landscape.
