Ethereum’s Prolonged Downtrend Raises Questions: Is a Price Turnaround Possible?

• The recent performance of Ethereum has left analysts divided, as a significant drop in price raises questions about its future viability.

• While the upcoming Pectra upgrade is touted to enhance network functionality, reactions from the market indicate a cautious sentiment surrounding Ether.

• According to Gabriel Halm from IntoTheBlock, “While Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade won’t necessarily trigger an instant price bump, it marks a significant step forward in the ongoing improvements to the Ethereum ecosystem.”

Ethereum’s recent market slump raises critical questions about its future, following a year of losses and mixed investor sentiment.

Is Ether price at a generational entry or lost cause?

The second largest cryptocurrency is drawing mixed opinions from the crypto industry. Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade was deployed on the Sepolia testnet on March 5, and Gabriel Halm, a research analyst at IntoTheBlock, believed it could potentially ease ETH’s recent selling pressure. Earlier this week, Halm stated,

“While Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade won’t necessarily trigger an instant price bump, it marks a significant step forward in the ongoing improvements to the Ethereum ecosystem.”

Similarly, crypto analyst Louie noted a parallel between Ethereum’s current bearish predicament and Bitcoin’s situation in 2023. He implied that both assets display comparable price structures, market sentiment, and catalysts, which may eventually allow ETH to “rhyme” with BTC’s bullish breakout.

In contrast, Matthew Hyland, a market analyst, suggested that Ethereum might already be experiencing a bear market. With Ethereum objectively in a 357-day downtrend, Hyland believed there was no correlation between BTC and ETH in the current market landscape, saying,

“Up until a year ago everything was in a bull together and a bear together, now it’s mixed.”

He highlighted that ETH’s price bottom could potentially signal the beginning of the next cycle, while the confirmed double top pattern on the weekly and monthly charts raises the likelihood of a more significant correction.

Nebraskangooner, a well-known crypto commentator, suggested to his 379,900 followers that based on this pattern, the estimated breakdown target for ETH is around $1,200, indicating a potential 42% decline from its current value.

Only 26% of Ethereum addresses are profitable

Between December 1, 2024, and March 4, 2025, Ethereum price declined 50% in just 78 days. While such drastic corrections are common with low-cap crypto assets, ETH has lost more than $250 billion in market cap during this timeframe.

This sharp bearish turnaround has undoubtedly impacted investors, with data from IntoTheBlock indicating that only 26% of all addresses holding 36.92 million ETH remain profitable. A staggering 70% of addresses are “out of the money,” with just 4.46% at breakeven.

The technical outlook also reflects this downturn; Ethereum’s weekly close has occurred below a 980-day uptrend, dating back to previous cycle lows in June 2022. A break beneath this ascending trendline could signal a long-term trend reversal, casting a potentially ominous shadow for bullish investors.

Interestingly, despite the downturn, the altcoin experienced a sharp rebound over the past 24 hours, rising 12% from recent lows at $1,996 to over $2,242.

The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to multi-year lows, consistently confirming the bearish nature of Ethereum’s long-term market structure. Nonetheless, this decline could imply a weakening of selling pressure in the short term, providing room for possible relief rallies.

Conclusion

In summary, while Ethereum has faced significant challenges and uncertainty in recent months, the implications of the Pectra upgrade and other market dynamics may play a crucial role in determining its future direction. Investors are advised to closely monitor these developments, as ETH’s next moves may prove critical in shaping the landscape for the broader cryptocurrency market.