Consensus expects July core PCE to increase about +0.3% MoM and roughly 2.9%–3.0% YoY, marking a third consecutive rise as tariff-driven pressures linger. At Jackson Hole, Powell reframed the debate toward labor-market dynamics, leaving the trajectory of monetary easing dependent on forthcoming data.
A materially hotter PCE print would likely constrain expectations for the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts, whereas a softer outcome could sustain risk appetite. Market participants are closely watching core services, wages and indicators of consumer spending for policy guidance.
Onchain metrics show liquidation clusters around $114K and $116.8K for BTC, with near-term downside support near $107.6K. Traders should track whether $114.5K flips to support and how Treasury yields and the DXY affect risk assets and Bitcoin positioning.